Silver Shortage Feedback
(I predicted shortages with low prices leading to higher prices)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, September 15th, 2008
I thank God for the insights he gave me, because
not everyone who can read their Bibles could see what I warned you about,
and many still don't see it even today.
Silver is volatile, more than gold. In Gold's last bull market, gold dropped nearly 50% in 1975, from about $250 to $125, and didn't recover for 4 years.
What if silver did that? Or worse? Could you sustain that kind of loss in futures? Could you ride it out? Not in futures that only go out 2 years.
How can you protect yourself from such an event in silver, in this bull market? Would you have to use less leverage? Or buy longer dated options that don't exist? Should you put down 75% of the money for your silver position, but not hold the silver and still risk a delivery default?
Futures and Silver are fundamentally different things.
Futures expire. Silver does not.
I don't share this to "toot my horn", but rather, to refute those who
say that nobody predicted this, and to refute those who say that I didn't
predict this. I predicted this. Exacly what we see
today. Anyone could have predicted this. In fact, I predicted
silver shortages in my advertising for over the past year. I've
predicted shortages for so long, that people began to say I was crying
wolf. But the wolf is here now. The coming shortages in silver
was self evident to anyone who took the time to study the fundamentals of
the small size and tightness in the silver market, and who can understand
relative size of markets, and who can understand the basic math that shows
that paper usury systems must fail due to the inescapable conclusion that
you cannot compound your way to owning every atom in the
I thank God for what he taught me about usury, that he taught me to not take his word on the matter, but to really search it out, and meditate on it, and think deeply about the concept and its real world and theological implications. Usury leads to slavery. We are called to love our enemies, not enslave them. We are called to freedom, as where the Spirit of the Lord is, there is Liberty.
Yes, Biblically speaking, we have the liberty to lend at usury, and even enslave others! But we are called not to do those things, as I see it.
One man tells me that interest is merely a discount that the market
places on future goods. Wrong. Interest is not a
discount. It's an extra fee! Usury is a bribe to get you to
accept future goods rather than accept payment today. The Bible also
calls us to not withhold from the worker his daily wage, nor to defraud
the worker by withholding wages. Social security and 401k plans that
get raided as companies go bankrupt are not the Biblical way. As I
see it, you have the right to not accept the bribe of usury, or interest,
for delayed payment, you have the right to not lend and not borrow, and
that is the better, Biblical way. So, in a sense, I'm not advocating
zero usury, I'm saying I refuse to be bribed even by 100%
The shortages will lead to higher prices. Probably shockingly higher prices! The shortages will cause others to buy silver from the paper market to sell at big profits to the real market. People are considering opening up new mints to meet market demand. The market will break the back of the manipulations. The low price is temporary, and it is ending through higher prices for real silver. Eagles are selling for $4.00 to $4.50 over spot at the major wholesalers now, and up to $20-24/oz. at ebay for tubes and individual Silver Eagles!
Shockingly, some people still deny that there is a shortage. They don't see the evidence because they have not seen it on their news, because they have not been to their coin dealer, because they don't know the statistics of the silver market, and because they don't understand the economic implications.
Here, then, are reports of the worldwide shortage of silver that is here now, worse than ever.
9/15/2008 2:31 AM
Over the past few weeks I have been reading your articles on the
shortage of silver. I really did not expect a shortage to show up in India
- but was in for a surprise over the weekend.
I started buying silver bullion and coins about three years ago (when, ironically, it was also in the $10.00 range), and today experienced for the first time since then what so many of your other subscribers have recently reported. I went to a coins and collectibles dealer in my area for my weekly silver buy, and was promptly informed that they were completely out of .999 bars and rounds. They did have plenty of 2008 Silver Eagles--not surprising, since they're asking $20.00 each for them, nearly double the current spot price. Only one other customer came in while I was there and (like me) bought some 90% coins instead, their prices for which were about the same as another local competitor of theirs where I normally buy, and who, on my last visit also seemed to not have the usual large selection of pure silver bullion products (and that was BEFORE the recent correction).
So it would indeed appear that at the moment retailers aren't selling to us because private holders aren't selling to them, and probably won't be, especially while the price is on the floor. Presumably this won't change until the oft-predicted Next Big Leg Up in the silver price begins in earnest, and, with the numerous small bank failures (nearly a dozen this year so far) and bailouts/buyouts of other big lenders and securities houses, plus the worsening economic collateral damage from the housing market bubble burst (inflation, unemployment, stagnant consumer spending, super-tight credit, etc.), the hysterical flight of the debt-ridden masses back to Real Money may happen sooner than we fortunate (literally) Silver Bulls expected.
My compliments to you on your insightful, well-researched, faith-based guidance.
Went Hunting for Silver at my Local Coin shop. ."Accent On Coins", in
So Everett, Wa.. they had ZERO Silver.. The store owner said the only
silver he is seeing is silver someone is brings in to sell, and that lasts
for 2 minutes as the next person to enter the store buys it..
Refiner out of $1000 oz bars begging for bars to keep doors opened.
no silver to be found in any coin shop in sioux city ia. jim peck
You're absolutely right about the silver shortage. My 2 local coin shops I normally buy from are on empty, and see no prospect of getting some anytime soon. They haven't put in any orders for at least 2 weeks. One said that she stopped putting in orders because all her suppliers can't say when they'd be able to deliver. So she hasn't put in any more orders for weeks. The other one said that he hasn't been able to get any for 2 weeks. It appears that Ted Butler's predictions are finally coming true. This is the final phase--the physical shortage which will lead to the short squeeze in the paper markets.
I don't want to support the fraud by selling my silver into the current fraudulent market. Is there a place to sell that would capture at least some of the true value of the commodity? I would appreciate your reflection on this dilemma as I suspect would many small-scale silver investors facing real financial obligations.
Yours in Christ,
Jason answers: ebay is the best for now. they take up to 15%, depending on order size. Or others say as little as 5% for 1000 oz. bars. (I don't use ebay, I'm just reporting.)
Hi Jason... hope your having a great day today!! :-)
Hey Jason, Im a subscriber to your newsletter and always enjoy reading
what you have to say. I just got my dad to start reading you too and he
loves it. I live in the Salt Lake valley and thought I'd share whats
happening in the local silver market with you. I just called the two coin
shops that I regularly buy silver from. The first one is located in
downtown Salt Lake City and they are completely out of silver. No 40% or
90% bags, no rounds, no 10 oz. or 100 oz. bars....nothing. The other one
is located in Ogden which is about 40 minutes north of Salt Lake. They
just got a shipment in today of 300 rounds and already sold 50 of them.
They are selling them at 15.50 an oz. which is about 5 dollars over the
current spot price of 10.65. The highest premium I ever paid them in the
past was 1.50 over spot. Neither shop has ever had any shortages. Amazing.
I believe you are 100% correct that prices are artificially low, perhaps
being kept there by big players in the financial and government sectors in
order to prop up the dollar and prevent the paper silver market from huge
defaults. In any event its quite interesting to watch it. Keep up the good
work and God bless you.
I was actually shocked today for the first time. I have been buying silver from a coin shop in Lakeland Florida for the past year and a half. You could get basically anything a small timer could want. You could buy monster boxes of silver eageles and a sale of 100 gold eagles was not unusual for 25 to 35 over spot The man has two shops, one in Lakeland and one in Clearwater and has been in business for 40 years. He has no silver other than nusimatic coins. None. He wants 100 dollars over spot for gold eagles which he has plenty meaning several hundred. The other coin shop in Lakeland that I frequent usualy has some art bars and a few bags. They mostly make their money on diamonds. He had 200 silver eagles and wanted 3 dollars over spot. There is now a shortage in Lakeland!
NO SILVER IN CANADA: In Toronto for example at Scotia Bank you can,t buy any silver for few months now.Two months ago i bought 400 ounce because that silver was kept for another person and he did not came to take the silver.I guess i was lucky,because the price is so low now my wife is angry with me,she think that we lost the money and the price will go much lower.I know that the z-----t criminals manipulate the market.I have no fear about the price going up soon.I invested about 80000$ in silver.For few weeks i call the Scotia Bank every day to check for silver,i want to buy some more,but there is no silver and i have a very god friend that work at the precious metals department.He told me the same thing,there is no silver for so long and the price still went down.People are going crazy,they want to buy,but there is not even 1000 ounce bars.Today i call the bank again,i call them almost every day and told me that they don,t have any kind of silver,nothing,zero,everything is empty.They told me that they have gold but not silver,i ask,when do you expect any silver?The lady told me that this month i cant buy any,maybe in october if an investor is low on cash and needs money.Here is the address and the the phone number if you dont believe me.Foreign Exchange&Precious Metals Scotia Plaza 44 King Street West,Toronto,Ontario M5H 1H1 TEL (416)866-4900 If you dont believe me call them and see that is true.God bless you.
Jason, I went to Greenville's only silver coin store in town.
They are out of all pre 2008 silver eagles, but have a small supply of
2008 silver eagles. I bought a few rolls at $16/oz, which is about
$5.00 over spot. He had 1 100 oz bar offered at 4.75 over.
2008 coins are allocated and he is waiting for more. He doesnt
expect any older eagles until paper spot gets back to 17-20 range.
He said it is very hard to find silver to buy now. Everyone is
buying silver and no one is selling except at very high
I enjoy you emails on the silver. I tried to go to my coin shop (Lakewood Coins) in Lakewwod, Colorado today. The were 3 other people waiting for the store to open when I got there. The first Customer in wanted to buy silver and was told they had no bars of any weight, no rounds, no maple leafs, no silver eagles. It would be 4 to 6 weeks before they would have any. The only thing they had was 1 Bag of silver for $11,000.00 and other odd silver coins. I was really shocked even though I read your emails. I bought a 1/10th oz. gold eagle for $100.00. Just though I would let you know how things are in Denver.
I just wanted you to know that I went to the bank today at 3:30PM after seeing the price of silver drop to $10.75, after debating if I should wait for further price drops, I am glad I did. When I went into the bank to place an order for any kind of silver remaining, Nickolas the bank teller made a phone call to order my silver. The person on the other end of the phone line said they only had 300 Canadian maple leaf coins at $15 even! They had no 1000 ounce bars, no 100 ounce bars, no bars what so ever!! I told Nickolas that there is a world wide shortage of silver and he said "Maybe I should buy some?". I joked "Sorry I just purchased the last few ounces."
The economic con game of paper currency created out of nothing and paper promises of silver, gold, stocks and bonds is coming to an end and as a newly awakened individual since February I am glad I purchased on the way down and did not wait for the contraction before the explosion. Why? Because silver and gold is money and I got it at a discount when there were some supply left.
HELLO AGAIN JASON I went to our
local coin shop yesterday and was able to buy 2 Swiss 1 oz. gold bars for
$840 each and a bag of $100 face value old coins for $960. He had no
silver eagles, maples or any rounds or any other gold in stock.
During our chat he mentioned his great concern at being unable to buy any
2008 silver eagles for his long time Christmas customers, and that very
few people are bringing coins into
“Just have a comment on the state of the silver market, at least in my local market,Victoria, British Columbia,” writes a reader. “I went to cash in on the recent increase of the gold/silver ratio -- to trade my gold for silver and then reverse the trade when the ratio (hopefully) drops -- at the largest coin dealer in the area. To my surprise, they were sold out of silver -- SOLD OUT!
“The dealer said the recent drop in silver had people lining up out the door to buy silver. They said in 30 years of business, they have never sold out of stock. Just from a purely social commentary, I would say the ‘gold rush’ is far from over.
“Alas, I went home still holding my gold -- not altogether a bad thing in today's market conditions.”
The NW Mint in Auburn, WA, told me today that it is a 4-6 MONTH wait for silver now. Another coin shop in Victoria also confirmed they are out and have "no idea" when they will get any. The last batch went it one day. He said, "I've been doing this for 30 years and have never seen anything like it". He sounded very frustrated to me. He does have some gold, which sounded more encouraging.
Who would have believed spot silver at 11-12 bucks when you can't find any? It is tragic yet somehow comical. Absurdity reigns!
Ted Butler and you guys are 100% correct. The proof is right in front
I don't think he's sold a lot.
Just to let you know that the shortage of retail silver has now arrived
over this side of the Pond--
As an aside, I have a fairly hefty investment in the ETF securities
Those are some of the silver shortage reports from September 9th
to the 15th.
Oh, here's one.