More TwosDay Silver Shortage Reports

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Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, September 5, 2008

I asked my readers to go to their local coin shop on Tuesday, September 2, at 2PM.  On September 3rd, I published the first 10 reports from my readers.  Here are the rest, about 25 more.  They are almost identical.  No customers.  No silver.  Long delivery times, or unknown wait times.  What little silver there is, is often selling at shockingly high premiums, and going higher. 

How can this be?  No customers AND no silver?  Very simple, as I've explained many times over the years.  Less than 1 person in 1000 is interested in silver.  Only $1 billion of total investor demand per year.  Silver investment is an extremely tiny market, ridiculously tiny compared to world finance.  There is 100,000 times more money in paper bonds than in silver.  Often in the world, in cities of millions, there is only one major large bullion trader, and these days, they are sold out.  This is exactly why silver must go up, and exactly why silver is such a great bargain.  Nobody wants it, (relatively speaking) while everyone needs it.  Today,  there is "record" demand greater than ten times normal in places, yet, still no lines.  The public, who used to sell, to help fill the supply/demand gap, is no longer selling, and is now buying.  The coin dealers looked at the prior customer selling, and from their perspective, "nobody wants silver".  From an investor's perspective, the former public selling was an "unsustainable supply source" that was filling a supply/demand gap, that cannot be filled, except by rising prices.  This current change in the market structure of the silver market could easily be forseen by anyone, yet some people continue to deny it today.

COMEX paper prices continue to diverge from physical.  It may well be that the premiums on real silver, are creating the incentive for people to sell out of their paper futures contracts, and buy real silver, instead, since paper silver prices are not keeping up with the real thing. 

NEWS:  Barclays, sponsor of the silver ETF, SLV, needs £7.5 billion in capital, and is clearly in trouble!  I have warned about the integrity of SLV, because its silver is unauditable, with JP Morgan the custodian, who also uses many sub custodians, so the ETF is basically reliant upon the promises of JP Morgan and its creditors, and JP Morgan has the largest derivatives exposure of all banks, by far, $72 Trillion, with a T.

http://www.bankingtimes.co.uk/04092008-barclays-may-face-75bn-shortfall/

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(name withheld)

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Jason, I went to my favorite local coin shop on Tuesday at 2:00 pm.
He had no silver dimes, as somebody had bought all that he had.  He
had some half dollars, but somebody had already paid for them.  He had
maybe 50 silver eagles of different dates but was asking $15.00 each
when the spot price was about $12.77.  He also had 3 one ounce bars
that looked like they had been through hell.  There were a small
amount of silver quarters, maybe about 200.  I bought a roll for
$90.00 and felt lucky.  I asked the dealer what was going on, and he
responded that he thought the paper silver market was responsible for
the confusion.  He said people have been buying silver like crazy ever
since last year.  This shortage looks real to me.

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Jason, I visited my local, coin shop at exactly 2pm Tues. Only one person was there dealing for a coin.  I asked to purchase some 10oz bars and Jack informed me that he had no bullion at all.  JHe offered me some junk dollars and said he had one box of Silver eagles.  So, I asked for some, he said come back tomorrow, I have them at home.  So, I asked Jack if he had heard of Jason Hommel, he stated  that he had.  Then I told him what you had predicted.  He explained that he didn`t know when he would get more bars.  Seems like you struck the nail on the head.  Sincerely, Phil Spokane, WA

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Hi Jason,

I wasn't able to make it to my local shop but I did call a friend of mine in Seattle and told him to go and try to buy some silver.

He called Northgate Rare Coins and Precious Metals who informed him that they had nil as far as inventories go.

He informed the gentleman that he wanted to buy about 500 ounces of silver in whatever form and he was told there would be a 4 week wait and would have to pay up front, $1.25 over spot.

He called one other shop that was also out. The shop owner said he just got in a shipment the other day of 500 oz's and within an hour a buyer came in and it was gone. He was willing to put an order in for another 500 oz's at .80 over spot for cash up front --  Guess he doesn't value the premium or the shortage.

Would you happen to know of any other folks in Toledo, OH that you are in contact with? I'd like to hear what their experiences have been like. You can forward my email to them if you wish.

Thanks,

Regards,

Steve Pratt
Toledo, OH

finnthecelt@yahoo.com

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 Hi Jason,
Tuesday at two I called my local coin shop, (just had knee replacement and couldn't drive), we are on a first name basis. I asked to buy 100 single ounce rounds and he chuckled and told me he had zero stock. He offered to buy any I would sell him at $2.00 over spot. I declined his offer. He told me he was even having a hard time getting his supplier to commit to availability for the near future even. He did not know when he would have stock. He said he had plenty of gold for sale. He also reads your emails as diligently as I do. I agree with your views 100% on the silver market, keep up the great work.
Mel W. Indiana/Michigan state line, coin shop in Roseland, IN by the University of Notre Dame

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Nobody has any silver around my neck of the woods. Coin shops are only ordering rounds (blanks) Pay full price up front. They are selling a few eagles at 18$ a piece. I told them I had silver for sale at a minimum of 50$ an ounce, got a good laugh. After that questionable silver blank I bought, I don't plan to buy any more rounds. Only Eagles or 100 oz bars

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(Editor's note: ebay.com, while expensive, is much cheaper.

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Jason, Started reading your articles about a year ago...On july 31st 2008, i bought my first 100 silver maple 1 oz -- Every week in August i went to the kitco store in Montreal and bought 100 maples with no problem but on september 2nd, around 2 p.m. they told me on the 9th floor that they had no more silver to sell...Disapointed -- Cannot understand, if there is such a shortage, that the price of silver is not going higher -- Thanks for your incoming stock report -- Pierre from Québec, Canada

EDITOR'S NOTE:  KITCO HAS NO MORE SILVER TO SELL IN QUEBEC?!   

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 Hi Jason,
 Went to the local coin shop on Tuesday and found myself looking into an empty (bullion) show case for the most part. There were some silver rounds but no 5, 10, or 100 oz bars. I cleaned 'em out of the rounds with about three hundred bucks.
No promises, I could order more if I were willing to wait 6-8 weeks for delivery which could not be guaranteed but would still be required to pay up front.
 There were also some silver eagles, about two thousand $$$ worth,(the last ones in stock) and they were $25.00 each!
 Peace,
Richard in Montana
 
PS Jason I find it interesting that bullion has dropped to where it currently is but the silver with the government stamp (eagles) is selling for what spot price probably OUGHT to be. Is this a fair guess? What's up with that? Are things getting SO corrupt that honest (PHYSICAL) investors are being hoodwinked by the paper guys? What do you do? Is 'sit tight and be right' a good philosophy in this wildly confusing market? I guess I know how you feel but I notice that even you have sold some ozs recently --
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Dear Jason,  Thank you for all the important information you are putting out on your website.  I'm a small investor and am purchasing 1 oz rounds.  I went to a local coin shop/precious metals dealer again on Tuesday and had good results.  No one was in the shop but the owner, an employee, and my wife and I.  This shop has been there since the 70's so I assume they have a decent reputation.  They recognized me from a purchase of 1 oz rounds about 3 weeks ago & I didn't even ring the buzzer as the door unlocked as soon as they saw us.  No one else was in the shop at 2 p.m.  I asked if they had anymore 1 oz rounds & he said they were sold out.  I asked if he heard of you and he put out some false press on you saying you're the guy that uses the Bible to sell your metals.  I said there was a shortage of gold & silver, especially silver and he said that was not true. He named a bank in the Northwest that I don't remembe r that had millions of oz for sale. He said the reputable coin dealers in California hate you for being a false propagandist.  I knew he was misinformed.  I saw a pile of large silver bullion coins laying on his desk & asked to see one. He told me they were a collectors item someone brought in & sold them to him.  They were minted by Franklin mint and mostly depicted engravings of English & other European historical events & they were strikingly beautiful.  I asked about the larger than usual size & he said that each coin was .999 pure silver and weighed exactly l.333 oz.  What do you want for them I asked.  He said spot price of $13.05 per oz and let me have them for $17.40 per coin and I bought all 45 coins for $783 for 60 oz. total.  I was happy you had your readers do this on Tuesday.  I would ask if you share this letter that you leave out the part about him not thinking a lot of you and what the purchase was as he reads your letters.  Thanks again for wising us up on silver.  My wife and I went to a McAlvaney seminar here in our city about 3 weeks ago.  As you know, he's been in the metals business since 1972 & writes a monthly newsletter.  He too says that the metals are about to shoot the moon & that for the next 2 years silver will out perform gold. You may call McAlvaney for his DVD seminar about 2 1/2 hrs. long  God bless you and guide you in all that you do.  Buddy Kae

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Jason,

 

I have visited my local silver shops here in Indianapolis and it is cost prohibitive to buy from them due to large spreads and having to pay sales tax in Indiana.  I buy from Bullion Direct and have had great service from them.  They are delayed but I still got 1400 eagles delivered in about 2.5 weeks... taking delivery today. 

 

I am trying to use craigslist.com to sell my silver locally.  There are no fees.  I have used craigslist many times to sell all kinds of merchandise but I have had no action on a post I put on over 2 weeks ago.  I don't think many people with silver use it to connect with buyers/sellers.

 

If you could put the word out about craigslist.com maybe it would be the freemarket we are all looking for. --Matt Bopp

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I went to a shop in Cedar Rapids that I'd never been to. Pick up a half a dozen Silver Eagle tubes and a few Silver Eagles. They had a small supply of Silver Eagles and rounds and bags of circulated/worn Morgan Dollars. I'm going back tomorrow to check out the Morgans. I was the only one in the shop at the time and I've no idea what his volumn is business wise. The owner is a locale Numismatist with the locale coin club. He did mention that Silver Eagles we're becoming hard for him to get.

Regards,

silvermax

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Didn't make it yesterday, but went to my local coin shop in Corvallis, Oregon today. I bought 3 100 oz bars (2 JM's and 1 Englehard) and that cleaned them out. They held them for me for 4 hours after a phone conversation(I have previously purchased from the same store and they remember me), they had 6 calls wanting to purchase the same bars by the time I picked them up. I paid $2.30 over spot. Store said that supply is difficult and that they sell out routinely. They also said I got lucky with my purchase today.

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Maybe it's because I'm a small buyer.  A very small buyer.  I only buy like a few hundred dollars worth of silver at a time but I've called about 10 places in my area.  Out of the 10 about 6 or 7 has silver in some form.  A couple of the places say they have hundreds of silver eagles.  The others say they have only 1 to 2 rolls and the other only has 9.6 oz bars.  Now at first i started getting shocked that these places were saying that they had silver.  Not realizing the small amount i was looking for or that they were telling me they had, excluding the 2 places that told me they had hundreds of silver eagles.  One of them got smart when I asked how many silver eagles he had in stock and said in a smug manner "more than you can afford." without even knowing how much i was looking to buy.  Anyway, maybe I'm just a small buyer because at first i started to question if there was a shortage just by the fact that so many of the places were saying they had
 silver.  I was expecting to hear that there was no silver in any form available in all the stores.  I'm a small buyer.  One of the places has 20 silver eagles for $16.50/oz.  I plan to head over there right now and buy them but the news of not hearing all the places saying they were void of silver of any kind shocked me and had me pause to ask about the shortage.  But maybe it's because I'm a small buyer only expecting to by a few hundred dollars worth of silver at a time, that i did not notice the shortage.

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Dear Jason,

Following your suggestion to visit local coin shops on the 2nd of this month, I thought you might like to hear about my own experience.

I live in one of the larger cities in the U.K. I decided to source my local coin shops and find out what they had in stock. Normally I would go straight to an internet source for coins (in fact, London is the only real option for any quantity) but it seemed only fair to check out the local places and pay them a visit.

I was surprised to find that my city supported only 2 coin shops with any hope of holding bullion in stock. The rest were basically jewellers or pawnbrokers/valuables-for-cash exchanges which were not worth the time.

The first shop was really tiny. Enough room to swing a cat - a very small one. Most of the stock was curiosity pieces in velvety boxes. I found a small section dedicated to familiar gold and silver coins. I got the idea very quickly. The complete 'bullion' inventory consisted of:

- 1x 1oz gold Britannia @ £500 GBP (10% premium)
- 1x 1oz gold Maple @ £550 GBP (22% premium)
- 1x 1oz silver Eagle @ £22 GBP (!!!)
- a 3-coin set of Royal Mint proof pound coins, at some silly price
- a few 1/4oz gold sovereigns, most of them of numismatic value
- a large silver Crown which was again a numismatic coin
- a few miscellaneous small gold coins such as Francs, Roubles, etc.

I asked if they stocked (or sourced) bullion coins which were not on display. I was told 'oh no, we are too small for that'. I commented that there appear to be no other retail sources of bullion coins in the city, perhaps even a lot farther. I suggested that given the recent bullmarket in precious metals and gold/silver coins, that he may have be missing out on an opportunity. But his interest seemed to be firmly in rare coins, and not shifting gold or silver - which I suppose is fair enough for an enthusiast with a shop. But its quite alarming to think that one customer could empty this shop in 5 minutes, and that would be pretty much it concerning 'real shops' with gold coins.

Oh, and I was the only customer, possibly even that day.

There is a second shop in the city, which is not a coin shop at all, but they do list a few bullion coins on their website in very small quantities. I think they would be cleaned out 5 minutes later.

When I got home I made a call to a coin 'dealer' in the city which operates without a shop and I found via google. I asked about bullion coins and was quickly referred to their HQ in London, so I said thanks an goodbye.

It seems this country has completely dropped the ball in terms of gold & silver?? I didn't realise it was this bad.

Sincerely,

Doug Little

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Appreciate your knowledge and wisdom that you share with us. Just wanted you to know that I did contact my local coin shop on Tuesday, and they didn't have any silver rounds (what I usually buy), and of course wanted me to place an order to be recieved later.

Just eight months or so ago they always had some rounds on hand.

John in Portland

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BNS.. IS EMPTY..

Was invited for a private tour of the BNS vault
Hi Bill,
Waited for 2 months for a tour of the Bank of Nova Scotia vault. Just came back and I was amazed at what I saw.
Given the amount of paper certificates out there I expected to see rooms filled with silver.
Silver:
They only have 60x 1000 oz bars as their working supply.
They have zero 100 oz.
They have zero 10 oz.
They have zero silver maples, silver eagles, zero 1 oz rounds.
They have 1x 5 Oz silver bar. They have 10 million Oz in custody for Sprott and Butterfield.
I asked where is the silver that is backing the scotiabank certificates? The vault manager said New York I guess.
I asked have you ever had inventory this low. They said, been here since 1985, never seen anything like this, we used to have shelves full of small oz silver.
He said waiting for 3 months for 100 oz, 5 oz and 1 oz but cant get any supply.
They have allocated silver and gold as well in large safety deposit shelves but wasn’t able to count that.
Used to be under impression that gold and silver certificates are allocated because they have an exact quantity of metal to the decimal point. Now I know otherwise the metal is NOT there, though they claim it is in NY.
Gold
They have 210x 400 Oz bars
They have 2800x 400 Oz bars in custody for I shares
They seem to have ~4000 maples, ~500 eagles coins, 10x1 kg bars, 10x 1 kg gold in small nugget form for jewellers
I asked where is the gold that is backing the certificates. The vault manager said, the BNS vault in NYC is 5x larger than this one so it is likely housed there.
All the best
Lenny Organ
President
Elite Cardiology Group Inc

Lenny,
I guess the Bank of Nova Scotia means their precious metals are in Deep Storage, just like The US gold.
MIDAS

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just called barry stuppler, stuppler and co. 1-888-454-0444, he also has no silver and won't even bother getting any bullion in his store.  stuppler is very well known and very very honest dealer.  i think is main business is old coins but he as sold silver rounds to me in the past.  none available.  gene.

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Hi again Jason,

Copied below is the original note I sent to you after the visiting my local coin shop on 9/2. Today I decided to check it out again and found out some more interesting information.

First, I again bought out his entire stock of Englehard 1 oz. rounds. This time I was only able to get 8!

Second, he told me that since 9/2 he has seen a significant increase in the number of people calling to inquire about the availability of silver or even gold. Just as before, he had none to offer or any idea of when he might get more. He and I talked it over a bit and the best we can figure is that the manipulators are trying to drive the paper price down in the hope that people will panic and start dumping so they can fulfill their obligations on the cheap but I know I’m not planning on doing that and apparently none of the other "regulars” are doing it either. We both agreed that there is something fundamentally wrong with the market and are guessing that the dam will soon break as more and more people try to find silver.

We live in very interesting times.

John Phillips

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Hello Jason,

Well, I thought you might like to receive a report of my observations regarding the September 2 and 2 PM movement here in Connecticut.

Being very interested in the subject, I arrived at Laurel City Coins in Winsted, CT, promptly at 2 PM this afternoon. I have been buying bullion there for years. The only person in sight other than myself was the proprietor, Dick Munzner. He reported that the further drop in silver prices appears to have completely dried up the interest of buyers. However, he also reported that he had virtually nothing to sell and nobody seemed to be accepting orders. I pretty much bought out his entire stock of Englehard 1 oz. rounds and I had no problem holding them in one hand. Outside of those, he offered me some weird 12-ounce replicas of the Walking Liberty coin from an unknown mint. I passed on them due to the odd size and shape which would make them difficult to handle or store. My impression was that he only had a few of those as well.

So, my guts tell me that you and Ted Butler have it right about the market manipulation going on but there is the question of when, if ever, things might change since the apparent manipulators have far more resources than any of us little people and they may be able to maintain this economic anomaly for quite a while. Sure makes me wonder if I should have bailed out a while ago but then my better sense tells me that this can’t last forever and may end with an explosive move but it isn’t a comfortable feeling to watch things sinking. :-)

Thanks for your information and best wishes for your long-term investment plans.

Sincerely,

John Phillips -

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Jason,

            I have no dealers close by, so I called Liberty Coin Service in Frandor MI. @ 2 on Tuesday.
The same story you have, shelves basically empty, but the still can get physical
For delivery. They could get bars, and coins-- premiums for junk U.S. silver
Were up significantly 6.2% premium vs. almost zero a few months back.
Silver Eagles @ over 27% premium---
They said the people coming into the store to sell silver is about all dried up.
I enjoy reading your e-mails, and am truly amazed of the power of the people in control
To force down these prices so much at will.  Goldman Sacks was telling their investors to get out
Of gold @ 1000, and buy it back later -- these insiders keep getting richer on market manipulations.

                                                                                    Alex

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Hello Jason
  Went shopping in Fargo today. 2 shops. 1 had 3 1oz rounds of ag and a 1/10th of au. They don't now. The other has no rounds or bars. They do still have some dated 1 oz. bars and 12 oz. rounds and a very little misc. (I run out of $.)
                                                             john

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   My name is Rodnee Ree and I am an ex-pat living in Belgium.  I want to convey a simple story about silver which no one seems interested in hearing.
     My family has maintained an account in Switzerland for 20 years and yes we report the account.  Given what is happening in this worldwide economy I decided it was time I owned some physical silver.  In June I went to Zurich and bought 5 bricks (30kilo bars).  I have not in my life had the feeling of security as I did when I took delivery of this silver and stored it into my safe deposit box.  They were hypnotic and holy heavy.  They weight about 62lbs each.  Not in absolute terms, but a bit underestimated until one picks one up. 
     While locking the box, I decided to take a second look and noticed they were slightly oxidized.  For those of you who don't know, silver tarnishes into a light yellow orange eventually turning to black. 
     I then locked the box, went back to the hotel and googled silver cleaning. 
     Fast forward to the next day and I was the first in line at the bank to get my silver out of the safe.  Making two trips, one with two bricks and the second with three, I wheeled my silver down the bahnhofstrasse in a ragged old suitcase past the unsuspecting public to the hotel to clean my silver.  It was a total blast.   Just a roll of aluminum foil to line the bathtub, hot water, baking soda and two hours later, my silver was sparkling and downright sexy.  My wife never looked this good.  As a junior Mugambo Ranger (JMR) I did feel the need to rub this silver all over my bod but reason won out and I returned it to my safety deposit box.  I figured I could do without the concussions.
     To all those who are worried about the price of gold and silver, stop it.  It is nonsense.  You should have a percentage of you net worth in hard precious metals. Because, eventually all paper money into nothingness descends.  It grows old and dies and meets its end.  How many confederate dollars, weimer notes and Zimbabwe bills do you want to be holding when the music stops -- Get yourself some silver and gold and go party like a rockstar -- end of story.

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Are these silver shortages true, you may ask?  How is truth established?  By two or three witnesses.  CPM group is one, they show stats on investor demand, showing us the market is tiny.  I'm another.  The coin shops are another.  These were just 25 more.  And you ought to go and see for yourself. 

Many people have told me they take the time read me for about a year before they act.  I suppose it takes that long to destroy all the illusions and lies fed into our minds over the years.  This is not the time to wait for another year.  Act today!

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel

In case you miss an email, check the archives:
http://silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm
www.bibleprophesy.org 

You can buy silver in lots of 100-500 oz. at my auctions at www.seekbullion.com
Auctions end M-Th, Sat, At 7PM Pacific, but you can place bids anytime, 24/7.  Wires only.  USA Shipping only. 

You can also buy silver at www.momsilvershop.com
Mom will ship overseas, and also in lots of more or less than 100 ounces.

See us also at:
Rocklin Coin Shop
4870 Granite Drive, Rocklin, CA 95677
http://rocklincoinshop.com/