What Naysayers are Saying; 1-37 of 112

(Part 1 of 3)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, December 8th, 2009

Last week, I asked my readers to tell me what it's like when they try to convince their friends and family to buy silver and gold. 

What do Your Naysayers Say?
(Why won't your friends and family listen?)
http://silverstockreport.com/2009/nay-say.html

The letters poured in.  They are all very good.  I must share them all, names removed, of course.  They go to show that gold and silver are extremely unpopular, and thus, gold prices are far from a bubble, not even close to beginning a bubble. 

The letters have great suggestions.  The best is to put silver and gold into people's hands!  Only then, when feeling the unique heavy weight of it, do they begin to understand what "something real" feels like. 

The next top tip is to take them to a local coin shop.  They can't buy what they don't know how to buy or where to buy.  Many simply don't know where to go, or what to buy, or what to ask for.  Taking them into a coin shop eliminates all the pain and fear of the unknown.

The amazing thing of all these letters is the overwhelming testimony they provide.  My first impression was that they prove that gold and silver prices are not "toppy", not "in a bubble", not even remotely popular.  But they also go to show the vast ignorance out there.  The many popular and stupid things said against silver and gold are simply astonishing.  For example, now that gold has gained over 25% per year on average since 2001, for 8 years in a row, you would have thought that the argument "gold does not pay interest" to be dead.  Not so.  It's still a popular argument, which is unbelievable.  I would not have thought that I needed to even say anything on this subject, and I fear I'm unable to refute that argument without being at least somewhat condescending, no matter how gently I would try to phrase it. 

The bearish precious metals sentiment even among many of my long time readers is also simply amazing.  They "know" silver is headed to $100 to $500, but don't want to buy at $18!?  They know a "hyperinflation" is coming, but don't know when to sell for cash?  Amazing.  How about "never" or "not until you need to make a purchase and the vender won't take metals"?  Or how about, "don't sell until everyone takes precious metals"?  Or how about, "only sell for another undervalued asset."  It's all so simple, I don't know why even my dedicated readers have such a hard time thinking about these basic things.

I can see the gloomy responses now.  Many will write back with pessimism, saying "We'll never get everyone into silver and gold!"  But we don't need to!  The US Mint only mints 1 million oz. of gold per year!  We only need to increase investment demand from 0.01% to 0.1%, and that should be extremely easy given current inflation.  In fact, we/you/they probably won't be able to keep that kind of increase in demand away!   They are certainly trying, with increased volatility in prices, which the peasants never like, but all those humans who have developed a higher brain function that are able of comprehending relative size and who can do figures with only 7th grade math skills will get it. 

Teenagers can easily get it, as long as their brains have not been fossilized with flouride and other environmental poisons, nor have they yet learned how to get "A's" by memorzing the Fed propaganda, such as "gold does not pay interest" taught in economics courses in colleges across the land. 

Anyway, here are the letters, with my responses in ALL CAPS, where needed.   

__________

Excellent post Jason.
Some really great suggestions, especially about putting silver/gold into someone's hand and let them hold it.
What a great idea. Let Gold/Silver speak for itself.
 
Thanks I'll try it.

__________

Dear Jason,
               I have only gotten half way into your article, when I remembered that in the Jay Taylor discussion with his partner, Chen Lin, from China, that in his discussion with his friends and family in China, that they were NOT jumping onto the gold and silver bull either.  It was brought up in Jays radio broadcast this week. 
                I was surprised to hear that statement.  If that is true for the country, then when they really turn on the desire for precious metals, then as Doug Casey said, "it will be like Niagara Falls through a fire hose."
                I have only two family members interested in precious metals, and they are immediate family.  The rest do not understand it or want to understand precious metals.  I have a very large family, and I am sure my e-mails are passed around.
                As a child, growing up, I had 92 first cousins. Some of course have passed away, but a lot still remain.
                                                 Sincerely,
                                                         

__________

  Good idea Jason, to actually put physical metal in their hands..

  The objection that I've had from my father is that he owns a large stack of T-bills he bought in the 90's, that pay a 7% dividend..

  In the past he's always objected to buying PM's because they don't pay a dividend..

  My argument that you can sell part of your holdings when they go up in price doesn't impress him  (even though the price is up 300% or 400% already since when I first recommended gold/silver !! ), or he says "but then I have to pay tax on the capital gain", as if that were a terrible downside..

  So he would rather earn a steady 7% per year (and he pays taxes on that of course, but for some reason doesn't mind that!) , instead of an unsteady (because of PM price volatility) 30% a year let's say.

  And the funny part, though he agrees with my general contention that in the long term the US dollar and T-bills are probably toast,  psychologically he feels safer holding T-bills than gold !!

   What are you going to do with that kind of illogicality?

__________

Dear Jason,
            
            Yes, it is me again.
             About five years ago I spoke to my wifes' cousin.  He is about 4 years my senior, so he is 74 right now.  I told him about the bull market in gold and silver that started in 2000.  He had, in the past, bought some coins, but now  wanted to sell them.  He said he did not understand the whole idea of owning them anyway.
             Every reason I gave him, just made him change the topic.
 
             The same thing happened recently, about six months ago. He said that he did not want to hear about it anymore.

             I cannot tell you everything about him, except that he is the retired vice president of an International metals Mfg. company, known around the world.  I hope that his financial adviser at least understands precious metals.
                                           Sincerely,


__________

Hi, Jason
I appreciate your emails, as always.

I will tell you that I too was buying when it was out of favor, and I also bought during the correction that took place when the commodity and financial markets were on the ropes in late 2008 and early 2009.

But I would not buy now.  I think we are due for a sizeable pull-back.  That said, neither am I selling -- because I still believe that on a longer term basis, the metals will hit price levels (in dollar terms) that would seem silly to say out loud.  But I don't think that it is a path to wealth.  As you know, in a hyper-inflation, everything is going to get repriced and so I view the precious metal holdings as a way to preserve a portion of one's wealth, rather than as a way to build wealth.
 
My reasons for believing that we are due for a good sized correction are all anecdotal --
 
years ago, when gold was hitting its low, I had an email exchange with an anchor at CNBC.  I asked them why they never talked about gold and I tried to convince them that it was a bargain and that they should expose their viewership to asset classes that are out of favor, because that is where the opportunity is.  Of course, they thought I was nuts and had a zillion reasons why.  The last email I sent to them said that when CNBC is talking about nothing but gold and a good percentage of their commercials deal with gold ownership, that it will finally be time to sell it.

Well, brother, we have met that objective.  Now, everybody and their brother is telling me why I need to buy gold now.  Not just on CNBC but on the local investment radio channel.  They even have gold advertisers on mainstream radio shows and sports broadcasts.  And of course my mailbox is jammed full of advertisements.
 
I have always felt, that with regard to the investment markets, that which is commonly known is not worth knowing. 

I think the johnny-come-lately's to the gold market are going to need to first be hurt, before the market continues on toward whatever number it is going to reach.  Of course, I can't prove that it will work out that way, but that is my gut feeling.

One more observation, which I don't often hear precious metals commentators address.

during a hyper-inflation, it is going to become very difficult to determine when to cash back out.  For example, in a dollar wipe-out, let's say gold suddenly went parabolic and was priced at $10,000 per ounce.  Investor 'A', who accumulated at sub-$1000 prices cashes out (it certainly looks like panic buying to me -- let me take the profit). 
 
The next month, the hyper-inflation goes into overdrive and gold is priced at $15,000 or $20,000 per ounce and investor 'A' has already lost a considerable amount of purchasing power on his new found dollars.
 
What do you do?  Wait until they actually kill off the dollar and announce a new currency?  The hyper-inflation might make a monkey out of even those who were believers in gold, before it is over.  Do you have any thoughts on the 'end game'?
 
I read a book about the inflation in post war Germany and one of the best hard asset investments that was made before the hyper-inflation turned out to be a potato farm.  That was a commodity that was in much demand for the duration of the hyper inflation and depression and something that the common man would still find a way to buy, in order to survive. 
 
Sounds like a great idea.
 
Happy Holiday,

__________

I now have friends giving me CASH to hold to buy Silver from XXX next time I head there for my own purchasing -- so they trust me and trust Silver.  They just don't have time to drive there during their work hours, I am self employed and have time. 
 
So now the question is, when will we see another dip.  After buying silver over the last 2-3 years, I felt burned each time I bought while prices were spiking around $17-$18, only to be disappointed months later when they tanked to $13, $12, even $9!  I wish I had flooded money into Silver when it hit $9!  I think the lowest price I got in was around $12. 
 
I'd be happy to buy around $15/oz or less, but it just seems the price shot up too fast--  and we have yet to see more Dubai incidents that drive down metals and strengthen our joke USD currency when the world "flights out of risk and into cash" then the USD benefits, right?? 
 
I am confident to see Silver boom over $100/oz or over $500/oz and possibly higher, but I don't think that time is just around the corner.  I have strong feelings we'll see more deflation next year, as crisis usually drive deflationary pressures, especially when people need money so they sell their metals to pay their debts. 
 
For those that have no silver, yes it may be safer to buy at $19/oz than to wait and watch it get to $30/oz.  But for folks like me, who have already put over 50% of my capital into Silver coins and bars -- I just don't want to dump all my eggs into one basket at these recent spiked prices.  In fact I shorted the SLV ETF a few weeks ago around $18 so I'm looking for a dip to get out of the shorts and go long on SLV and buy more bullion for me and friends. 
 
My friends often trust me becuz I'm successful and haven't lost everything like other friends from the realesate market have, and I have fluent businesses that are doing well.  Even my local banker appreciates me sending her emails regarding silver and metals news, she knows the USD is fraud!
 
Thanks for your info and work, please let me know you also feel a dip will come, it can't be a one way path to infinity forever, not this soon?

__________

Jason --.what you say is so true. It is hard to convince others. I suppose I learned about sivler in the early 80's. Compared to Gold, silver was a novelty and affordable. Investing in Gold was for the rich. Though, I studied and learned and found your advice and support. Someone who thinks like me, and is not scared to talk about it and put your money where your mouth is.  
That is why I bought gold two and a half years ago. I took half my 401k and bought actual gold coins in a 401k holdings program. I paid $42,000.00 for collector coins when gold was $675/oz spot. Well I guess I learned well and invested well. Gold spot is at $1208 right now and was $1225 yesterday some time. My holdings have grown to $112,400.00. You might say I am kind happy. However to explain this to folks is ---well they say, "great, good for you-- but now gold is so high, how much higher can it go."   I believe it has a long way to go. To convince others is just not in the cards. I keep trying. I do have one friend that is buying American Eagles (gold) along with me, when we have extra cash floating around. That is a good feeling.

Again thanks for your writings and feed back. I think we know more and better and our duty is to create more converts.

Have a great day.

__________

Hi Jason
 
I have not replied for a while, however I always look forward to you updates and thought --  And also thanks for the time you have taken to reply in the past.
 
It took me 12 months of discussion to let my mother and father see the light and now, they are just as sure as I about the holding and security of Gods money.
 
My mom and dad purchased 9 oz gold just the other day, mind you I had to find the route for them and undertake the deal, but they are full square behind what they are doing.
 
What won them over initially was indeed the heft/weight of a gold coin and indeed the gleen of silver.
 
So, YES. To have real/honest money in hand will win out.
 
Regards from the UK

__________

Dear Jason,


I know you will be swamped by emails, but I did want to comply with your request for feedback as stated in your article today.

I have really enjoyed your articles, by the way, especially your emphasis on the Biblical aspects of hard money.  Your faith shines through and that is what saves us.  It is very interesting how owning and using precious metals ties directly in to God's plan for us.  Thank you for witnessing in this way.

I have been a numismatist for 35 years, since I was 5-6 years old, and have always been fascinated by history and coins.  I was able to pick out silver coins when I found them in change way back then, and it always was a special thrill to hear that special clink of the white metal on a surface, but the color of silver was also instantly recognizable.  In any case, even after getting a college degree in economics (which taught me less than 1% of what I now know), and running some small business enterprises, and being a fan of precious metals, and owning some gold and silver, I knew virtually nothing of the fundamentals of silver till I actively sought it out after somebody on pcgs.com's forum mentioned that silver was in fact rarer than gold. That took me by surprise!!  And that brought me to goldseek.com and silverseek.com, where I became acquainted with the writings of many astute writers such as yourself.  So thank you and thank God for that. 

This was early this year, and since that time I've made a concerted effort to load up on silver.  I have a little bit of gold (less than 10 oz) and wanted to put more into metals, but when I found out how rare silver is, I have been putting nearly everything into that metal.  I asked God for guidance, of course, and was reminded of the Biblical story of how one prophet (sorry, forgot the names of the personages involved) had a dream interpreted (or interpreted a dream of a king; I forgot), wherein the person dreaming was standing at a window and was asked by an angel to shoot some arrows out the window.  He chose to shoot three, and later Israel had 3 major military victories.  The angel explained that if he'd chosen to shoot more arrows, Israel would have won more victories.  And the king had the choice to shoot as many as he wanted, for the Lord would provide for the victories.  I guess the moral of the story was that if you trust in the Lord, He will do whatever He wants to reward you.  This is as promised in the Bible, anyway, at least that He will protect us.  But more than that, He loves to shower us with gifts especially if we love Him and glorify Him.  He has promised many times over in the Bible to fill our warehouses to overflowing if we follow Him and love Him.  So, I was reminded of this story and asked God to leave the window open as long as possible for me and my family and friends to stock up while we still had a chance.  This was in March.  So far, He has left the window wide open and I have been shooting those arrows, and haven't stopped.  I believe this might explain why the price of silver is still so low!  Laugh, but it might very well be true.  God is much more powerful than the Luciferian cabal manipulating the markets today, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit that He's leaving that window open a lot longer just to let other faithful to stock up, buy their oil to keep their candles burning, and get ready for what's coming. 

I know you understand this, so I won't go on more.  But my wife, who comes from a former communist country, understands innately the value of precious metals, and while she would prefer for me to save cash for our future, she doesn't seem to mind, after my explanations, why I have put most of our money into silver.  She does, however, ask periodically how silver and gold are doing.  Gold is less important to her, since we don't have that much, but when I tell her that gold keeps reaching record highs nearly every day or week, she asks, "what about silver?" to which I have to reiterate that it is a longer term proposition and that is what it's for, but that nonetheless it's been rising steadily.  However, I say that it will far outstrip the rise in gold, and even might surpass the yellow metal outright.  We have to be patient.  I have told her of my Biblical reasons for believing that I have a window of opportunity to purchase more at the moment, and will keep taking advantage of it till the good Lord closes that window, and of course that if silver were to rise parabolically now, it would preclude the opportunity to buy more at good prices, and so we must see the relative slow growth in price of silver in a favorable light, and be patient.  Its rise will come too, and much stronger than gold.  I think she is flabbergasted at the pile of silver I have, but not unhappy that we don't have cash (currency) because I think she feels that it's not wrong to do what I'm doing.

So that's my answer to you, sir, as it relates to convincing people to buy silver and gold.  I haven't had much success with other people, however, unfortunately.  Most people simply say silver is too heavy, or that kilo coin is too large, or they don't have a place to put it, or whatever.  Some people, however, are receptive, when given some logical explanations for what's happening around us. These people tend to be believers in the Lord, more often than not.  And I haven't even used any scriptural evidence or texts to back up my arguments with these believers.  They already know or feel that's right, I suspect.

Take care, and thank you once again for putting out such a quality product.  May God continue to bless you and your family

__________

Jason,

The best argument I have is to either show them, or describe to them if I donít have the coins with me, that in 1964 if I had a dime and a quarter, that 35 cents would buy a gallon of gas.  Or four quarters would buy 3 gallons of gas.

Taking a dime and a quarter dated in 2009, that 35 cents will buy only a fraction of a gallon of gas, but that same 1964 dime and quarter will actually buy more than a gallon with the dime being worth $1.20 and the quarter $2+ because they have SILVER.  

I also take those four 1964 quarters which would buy 3 gallons of gas in 1964 and they buy more than 3 gallons today, but a dollar bill in 1964 which would purchase 3 gallons of gas then, will only buy less than half a gallon of gas today.

I do the same with a $20 gold piece and to what it would purchase in 1930.  Then we look at what a $20 bill from that era would purchase today versus what the $20 gold piece would purchase today.

I get a lot of understanding with those examples, but I still get the Ďso, what?í attitude of no action.  Over the years my wife has finally understood and is an avid believe and has helped someone she works with to become a purchaser of gold and silver.  I have probably only seen one or two that I have talked with actually begin buying.  Most people donít have the funds to purchase, so get the deer-in-the-headlights look, and just donít act.

From you articles and website, I know you to be a Christian.  Keep up the good work(d).  He is coming soon.



__________

Jason,

There are some mainstream financial teachers that are harping on gold/silver at every opportunity.  Below are three links to answers from Dave Ramsey, a Christian financial "expert"  that a lot of people follow (not me though).  I would love to hear your response to what he says here.  I think it is ironic that a Christian teacher is against gold and silver, considering how much they are referenced in the Bible as being of great value. 


http://www.daveramsey.com/index.cfm?event=askdave/&intContentItemId=7952

http://www.daveramsey.com/index.cfm?event=askdave/&intContentItemId=9602

http://www.daveramsey.com/article/dont-buy-gold-sell-it/lifeandmoney_other/
 
JASON REPLIES:  SILVER AND GOLD ARE NOT A GAMBLE AS DAVE RAMSEY SAYS.  A GAMBLE IS WHEN TWO MEN PUT THEIR MONEY INTO A HAT, AND ONE TAKES IT HOME.  OFTEN THE HOUSE TAKES A CUT.  GAMBLING IS MORE HONORABLE THAN FUTURES CONTRACTS, SINCE IN THE FUTURES MARKET, THE SHORTS DON'T HAVE ALL THE CASH TO BACK THE METAL, AND THEY DON'T HAVE THE METAL THEY PROMISE TO SELL!  FUTURES ARE FRAUD.  SILVER AND GOLD ARE NOT.  DOLLARS ARE FRAUD.  GOLD AND SILVER ARE NOT.  GOLD AND SILVER ARE THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF GAMBLING.  PAPER CASH IS GAMBLING! 

I KNOW MANY MEN USE THE WORD GAMBLING TO DENOTE HIGH RISK OR HIGH VOLATILITY IN PRICES.  GOLD AND SILVER, AT TODAY'S PRICES, ARE NOT HIGH RISK, NOR EVEN VERY VOLATILE COMPARED TO MANY STOCKS THAT HAVE LOST 90% OR 100% OF THEIR VALUE IN A BANKRUPTCY.  GOLD AND SILVER, WHEN BOUGHT AT MARKET BOTTOMS LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY, WITH SILVER NEAR 600 YEAR INFLATION ADJUSTED LOWS, MEANS THEY ARE AT LOW RISK PRICE POINTS.

WHILE IT MAY SEEM A BIT SHOCKING TO SEE A PREACHER PREACH AGAINST GOLD, HOW CAN IT BE ANY OTHER WAY AT MARKET BOTTOMS?  EVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ISRAELITES DID NOT THINK THEY COULD TAKE THE PROMISED LAND WITH GOD'S HELP, AND SO THEY HAD TO WANDER THE WILDERNESS FOR 40 YEARS.  GOD DID TELL US TO WATCH OUT FOR FALSE PROPHETS. 

Matt 24:11 And many false prophets shall rise, and shall deceive many.

PLEASE NOTE, FALSE PROPHETS DON'T DECEIVE JUST A FEW, THEY DECEIVE MANY, BECAUSE WE LIVE IN A FALLEN WORLD OF SINFUL, GREEDY MEN, AND MOST MEN WILL NOT EVER COME TO KNOW THE TRUTH IN THIS WORLD.
__________

Jason,

I have two people in my life that I have tried to get to buy gold/silver

The first is my girlfriend, who has quite a bit of cash in CDs and MM accounts.   I tell her that her purchasing power is being eaten away and explain the tax issues etc and the USD risk.   She keeps saying that she is waiting for gold to go back down to $800 before she buys.  I told her sheíll be lucky to see $1000 again.   So I bring it up to her all the time, meanwhile the price keeps going up and up.   She has seen me start buying in 2005-2006 and adding to my core all the time but she doesnít trust it I guess, and believes the mainstream media more than me.   I tell her thatís OK Iíll need someone to sell the gold to when itís 5-6k!  Frustrating to say the least. 

My boss is the other one.  He was and is heavily into the stock market, and even heavy into financial stocks which I warned him about before the crash.  He took a 50% haircut and now that stocks are back up he thinks the worst is past us.   I tell him even $100k (which is a drop in the bucket for him) in PMs is good insurance and a sure winner.  He says gold doesnít pay interest.   It doesnít need to.   He also believes in TOUT-TV and has that stocks always go up mentality and thinks we are on the road to recovery.    He actually made fun of me when I first started buying gold.   Well, itís not so funny anymore!    Iím up 75%, heís still down 35%.  

I like my gold just fine, but I really like my silver for a lot of reasons.  I think that is where we will make the ďkillingĒ, assuming these idiots in Washington donít ruin us to the point where we are bartering with our silver.   

Thanks for your articles. 

__________

OH JASON -- you come up with some very funny stuff !!
 
My neighbor just stopped and said " WISH I TOOK YA ADVICE !! " but he did buy some silver at $14.60 this year. My brother sent email sayin' about the same, he bought late last year when it was $10, and says he should have kept adding to his investment.
 
I told them it's not too late, this $18.80 spot might look very cheap in a few years.

__________

hi, I read your report as I AM a silver 'bug'. I appreciate receiving it . I have to say that Ted Butlers information has been the most convincing info for those people I have talked with that have invested from $1500 to $250,000 cumulative total over $1,500,000. I recommend people buy direct from suppliers such as yourself (and specifically your shop). I will visit your mint asap. thanks for reports

__________

Jason,
 
I have convinced my brother and cousin's husband to both by silver.  When speaking to my brother I believed that he "got it" but he didn't go out and buy any gold or silver.  It was after I gave my niece some silver and gold for her birthday and christmas that he took notice and started purchasing.
 
For my cousin's husband I spoke with him on a couple of occasions and he seemed receptive.  However, he had a financial advisor friend that was telling him the old "Gold is a Relic" story and it made him pause.  After that I sent him a link to your website and he began reading.
 
The next time I saw him I let him hold some of my gold and silver.  That made a huge difference.  He still didn't buy any though.  What FINALLY did it was when I offered to take him down to the coin shop and walk him through the purchase.  I found that he was unsure about how or what to buy.  He thought he would get scammed.  Now he buys his own regularly.
 
I can't say enough about how appreciated your work is.  Keep it up.  The message is getting through.
 
God Bless,

__________

My father bought a house 40 years ago for $20,000 and sold it for $300,000.  My grandfather bought his house 60 years ago for $10,000 and my father sold that house after my grandfather passed for $400,000.  He thinks this makes him an expert in all matters concerning money.  Both my parents have government pensions and they have guaranteed income for the rest of their lives.  This money is now sitting in a bank earning about 3% and they have no interest in investing in anything.  They are both 65 and all 4 of my grandparents lived into their 90's and I'm afraid of what 30 years of inflation will do.
 
They saw me lose money in the stock market and they ask me about gold and silver prices as if it is only a matter of time before I lose in that market as well.  I'm afraid the problem is when they think about gold and silver and investing, they think about me and my painful lessons in the stock market.  I've shown them the receipts from apmex for $800 gold and $12 silver and they've both seen and held my "coin collection," as they call it.  They think I'm foolish because I "spent" my savings on gold and silver.  They would never take what they think is a risk with their life savings.
 
I've tried to tell them even though they aren't losing anything on paper they are losing wealth every day.  I've explained how a 0% FED rate is like the government printing dollars, which makes all the dollars in existence worth less, but they don't care.  This is conspiracy theory to them and they think it's just not true.  They are fully invested in the system and they will go down with the ship.  I think there's nothing that can be said in this case but I thought I'd vent a little and let you know what a lot of people think out there.  If there is anything at all I can say I'd love to hear it.

JASON REPLIES:  WOW.  IF THEY DON'T WANT TO MAKE ANY INVESTMENTS, TOO LATE, THEY ALREADY HAVE, THEY ARE IN HOUSING AND BONDS, TWO OF THE BIGGEST BUBBLES IN THE HISTORY OF HUMANITY. 

THEY THINK THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT PRINTING?  WOW.  THEY SHOULD CHECK GOVERNMENT STATISTICS ON THAT. 

http://www.publicdebt.ustreas.gov/

Total debt is now $12 Trillion.  That's $12,000 Billion, or $12,000,000 million, or $12,086,172,114,368.23.

All the gold in all the world is about 5 billion oz., which at $1100/oz., is $5.5 trillion.

They DID print the debt, and they are printing the debt, since nothing real could have been borrowed to begin with, because there is not enough real money to back it all up. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget#2008_vs._2009

The CBO reported in October 2009 reasons for the difference between the 2008 and 2009 deficits, which were approximately $460 billion and $1,410 billion, respectively.

The 2009 US budget deficit alone is over 25% of the value of all the gold in the entire world that was ever mined in all of human history.

The 2009 deficit, stated another way in terms of gold, is 18 times more than the value of the entire world's annual gold production, about 70 million ounces worth about $80 billion.

Backing the dollar with silver will not help, not at these prices, since the annual silver market production is only a mere $11 billion.  Clearly, higher prices for gold and silver are needed, and coming.
__________

Hi Jason - I've REALLY enjoyed your newsletters and learned a lot from them, as they've backed up all my "gut impressions" about silver while I've been converting every extra dollar I have into silver coins and bars.  Explaining this to people was a challenge at first, but here's a personal illustration I use that never fails to convince skeptics: 

In 1964, when we still used silver coins, my first real job (as a kid) was delivering the afternoon newspaper, which sold for ten cents, or one silver dime.  A 1964 silver dime had about 2.5 grams of silver in it, and that silver would purchase one newspaper.  That same 2.5 grams of silver today is worth about $1.37 at today's spot price. What will $1.37 buy today? About one newspaper! In other words, the PURCHASING POWER of that 2.5 grams of silver - what it will buy - is virtually unchanged since 1964, while the purchasing power of paper money has fallen by 90%. 

And then, to cap my illustration:

If, in 1964 I had put a crisp new $100 bill and 100 silver dollars in my safe - and then re-opened it today, those 100 silver dollars would buy about $1,905.00 in goods!!!  That paper $100 bill? Sadly, it would still only buy $100 in goods today.  So, while paper dollar valued assets continually erode in value can literally become worthless overnight, my stacks of silver coins will always be real money - anywhere, anytime.

Jason - I believe we are headed for an episode of sudden hyperinflation ending a complete currency collapse, and people are going to wake up one morning and all their dollar-valued accounts will be suddenly worthless.  Do you also see this? If so, how soon do you think this is coming?  This is why I can't stuff silver into my safe fast enough!

JASON REPLIES:  YOU PROBABLY WON'T WAKE UP TO FIND THE DOLLAR COMPLETELY WORTHLESS.  BY THEN, THE $100 BILL WILL BE WORTH A DOLLAR, SEE?  NOT A JOKE, THIS IS SERIOUS STUFF.  THE PENNY IS NOW COMPLETELY WORTHLESS!  IT HAPPENS OVER TIME.  IT IS HAPPENING NOW, SINCE 2001, WHEN PRECIOUS METALS BEGAN RUNNING AT 25% TO 35% PER YEAR.  25% DESTROYS 99% OF THE DOLLAR IN A MERE 20 YEARS, GROWING $1 IN GOLD TO $100.  35% WILL GROW $1 IN SILVER TO $100 IN 15 YEARS.

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my relatives, inc. my wife say you are a risk taker. don't believe everything people say. you are gullible. etc. it does not bother me  in the least. I plan on buying more.  thanks.

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Hi Jason,
 
I have been working on my aunt and uncle who live in DC. She just retired from the Coast Guard. Her 401(k) was only about 15k and I have been talking to her about investing in silver. She always lets me talk about it and never interupts me but asks more questions meaning she's seeking advice. However, my mom talked to her a couple weeks ago and she and her husband have been attending some Dave Ramsey seminars at their church where Dave has been the speaker. She told my mom that Dave said that silver and gold are the worst investments available and that you shouldn't invest in them because they are too high and blah --blah --blah!!! Little does he really know as he does not appear to give substantial evidence to his theories.
I just checked out his website and typed in "silver" and "gold" into his "search this page" and there is a few a very short statements Dave makes about silver and gold.

http://www.daveramsey.com/
 
I am sure by now you have heard where Dave stands on gold and silver, but it would be nice for the record to see a reply against Dave's view of gold and silver coming from you. I think he's willfully ignorant of the facts and quite possibly being paid off to keep his comments negative toward silver and gold.
 
If you get a chance I highly recommend watching this video and all the related videos in succession by Lindsey Williams about what those who run the county and the world have told him. He mentions gold and silver and how they are the only things you can rely by the end of the next two years. Well worth watching if you havn't already. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dC8HG8b0CU&feature=related There are three disks or parts to the whole series. If you are interested, I already purchased his DVD set and he wants people to make copies to get the word out. If you would like, I can mail you the set at no charge if you would like the information in DVD form. Just email me the address where you would like them to arrive and I will send them out right away.

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Jason,
It took me almost a year to convince my Mom to move any of her money into silver & gold. Luckily she got in while gold was in the low 9's and silver in the $13-$14 area. I think I probably sent her 3-5 emails per week, of yours, Ted Butler's, and David Morgan's, along with any articles out on the various silver/gold sites. Reminder articles of the Great Depression that her parents lived through, along with her hate of pretty much anything Democrat and mainstream media now has her "stacking". 
 
I would like to see her get more but she has the same concerns of "selling it when needed" if that day would ever come. Other wise I will be looking at it as part of"my stack", if of course I out live her. Now if I can only convince her to get, say 10 green monster boxes. or similar amts in generics. It is hard work, sort of, with her.


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My wife says it is too expensive for her to buy p.m. even though she's socking away an enormous amount in her 401k or IRA rathole.


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ignorance,trust in gov.

i live in okinawa japan ,jason, and i gotta say, that as part of asia, and the so-called love of p.m. asians are supposed to have, 99% of japanese have only one thing on their mind----their beloved yen. they are the ultimate herd animal as you prob. know. if their government told them as china has, to accumulate p.m, it would be a flood!! without that certainty, forget about it. okinawa used to be run by the u.s. military, and from '58 to '64, had 6 years to get acquainted with u.s. silver coin. but that's history, and except for elders who remember, nobody has a stash.
    there are 2 coin dealers on the island, and u.s. military personell, [mostly officers] do buy bullion and numistics, but the okinawans, sadly ,have very little interest.  It is a very socialist society. and it really is a shame. my wife, who is okinawan, if she had her way, would get rid of my stash tomorrow. her point is that since there is no interest,"who are you going to sell it to,someday?" i go to a pawnshop to get presents for christmas, lotta good looking used jewellry. can i use a gold coin to pay for it? nope. gotta have cash!!!
   hope this gives you some insight. thanks for all the great commentary.

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"you can't eat gold!"

My friends, some whom are firm in their convictions will say; "you can't eat gold".
 
Most often they are fair enough to listen to one sentence of reply.
 
I reply;   "that is not what gold is for, gold is for when the grocer's shelves are empty and his doors are locked.
You then take a gold coin to the grocer's supplier and buy a truckload of your needs. Discreetly delivered.  Silver is used to make change".
 
Thank you, Hommel and Company for your efforts in spreading the good word.

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Hi Jason,
    My experiences are so frustrating when I speak with my friends and family. In all honesty, It seems to me that my circle of close people just don't seem interested in those "Archaic Relics"  for the following reasons: 1. Gold is to expensive (so I refer silver), 2. They're unable to discern the real money/wealth/store of value vs. fiat currency, 3. Their is no leverage in physical holdings, 4. too short sighted (referring to the daily volatility), and 5. Even if they were to purchase gold/silver and the price doubles, turning maybe 5K into 10K won't make them rich enough to retire.

    I have only gotten 1 sister to buy gold/silver and she is 30% wealthier today just 1 year later, and she still cannot get her head around what I am saying to her; she pretty much bought I think to get me off her back. This really goes to show how ignorant people are over monetary issues. People don't want to believe that they are being stolen from via inflation and a falling dollar. I'm confident in the near future that they will. I hate the idea of watching the Baby Boomer generation of friends /family losing everything they thought they had for retirement; They seem to be the most stubborn to listen/take action. They still stick with the paper market because that is what their "advisors" tell them. They are the "Sheeple", and to their dimise.

    I'm rambling here so I'll just stop and say thank you for your articles on line at silverseek.com
God bless us all

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Jason, I have been in sales for years and I don't push, I just suggest solutions.  -- if you invest rather then rent or just use; you acknowledge time.  You can take the Bic lighter approach and then are always looking and needing -- .and most importantly, you are not really grounded and playing a part in life.  To have an interest in life and become educated in it's many levels you then help yourself; but more importantly you can now help others.
You are now God in action, the Samaritan, his tool if you will.
The metal arguments are mostly that as a species we resist change. Our favorite anything is what we always fall back on.  It makes buying a Christmas gift for aunt Mary or a new  saw for gramps easy --  -- it's what they always want -- but now the dilemma -- .the dreaded "something new" -- .
My best arguement has been real security in a changing world -- .

1. I use your three dimes -- .3 mercury dimes in 1964 would buy a gallon of gas..those same three dimes will buy a gallon of gas today..@ 19oz silver.

2. All the ladies I know like a nice piece of jewelry -- even great grandma's wedding ring becomes a special part of a family -- .by the way -- it's gold and if you look at what great grandpa paid; you quickly realize it's an investment -- a very good one.

3. If we fill our house with dollar bills and can't get the door open because of the stacks of money -- .we starve, so pick your treasures carefully i.e. paper is a poor choice.

4. Precious metals are cheap -- .for a while -- .be smart

Thanks for lending us your brain,


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Hi long time follower/reader I agree with you Jason. I do my speach about silver & gold. Silver first, gold second, what can you afford? silver %65, gold %25, and %10 dummys money or monopoly money. I tell many people, I like silver the best because it is very good for your health, and immune system. Eat with a silver spoon and live healthy that is history. Several book on silver and the your immune system. OH By the way did I mention its a great investment to. All I can say if you can't afford it just buy some SILVER any way.

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I have been buying silver and gold for 17 years.   I work with 150 men.   When silver was $8.00  I started selling eagles at work.  I heard all the jokes.  About 10 people bought at least 1 eagle from me, 4 bought maybe 10 eagles.   2 are still buying silver. only 1 person has  bought more than 30 eagles.  
 
There is this one guy who jokes me every day. he says  "sale"   I say why and he says  " spend it"  .     He told me that if I lay silver down at the cashier ,  they would laugh at me --.
 
when average people figure it out it will be to late for them, some day they will wish they had lessoned.
 
They say you can't take it with ya,   I say, " no, but you can starve on the way --"
 
95 % of people will always be wrong , I am glad they don't beleive me.   when 95% start buying, it will most likely be the time to sale.
 
If you want to bet average you have to not be average.
 
 
Thanks for the letters,  keep up the good work,  
 

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It has been a while.  Hope you are well.  You asked that you be told exactly.  I like gold and silver.  I bought it because of your website.  I am glad I did.  I have friends that do not.  They are not stupid.  With regular jobs, two incomes per family making what a crappy lawyer makes 80 to 120 thousand together, they and me, have paid for houses maybe 175 to 225 thousand depending on the market.  The kids are through college.  The money is there for the grandkids' college as well. 

I just bought the first new vehicle for me that I have had since I got married.  I am 56.  My wife has had several new vehicles.  I bought my last vehicle, a 1994 IF-150 in 1997 used with 62,000 miles on it.  I put 125,000 miles on it for a total of 187,000 miles when I retired it a few weeks ago and bought myself a new Toyota Tacoma with 4 miles on it. All the credit to Jesus.  You said exactly.  I have one friend who owns a gun shop.  He puts all of his money into things/guns.  Hundreds of collectable guns that can be sold one at the time after retirement for that 800 dollars he needs.  Another friend buys things/cows.  He has several hundred a modest amount, but each one has a calf every year or so that he sells.  The people that I know buy things.  They do not hold cash.  I even know some that like gold and silver.

You have been very good to share information.  I am certain that you are smarter than me and probably have the food issue taken care of as well.  I would like to share with you a business I buy bulk grain from.  Breadbeckers.com.  They are in Woodstock Georgia.  They are very religious.  The sell grains like wheat and other food like beans.  They are very responsive. They do what they say.  If you order something, it appears on your doorstep.  I buy the wheat because I make my own bread because of allergies.  A pizza shouldn't have 30 to 40 ingredients.  It should only have 5 or 6.  They sell organic beans and grain as well.  The product is clean.  I like it because they pack it in 6 gallon buckets that has had dry ice put in it at packaging to force out the oxygen with carbon dioxide.  Simply put, a bug can't live in it until you open it.  Remember the 7 lean calves and the 7 fat calves.  The grain keeps forever.  All the vitamins and minerals haven't been extracted.  Try the refried beans that are dry.  I have eaten in some very good Mexican restaurants in California.  My daughter lived in Chico for several years.  These beans keep and they are excellent.  Just my opinion for what it is worth.  God continue to bless you.
 
I'm too tired to proof what I just wrote for grammatical errors after staring at a computer screen for the past 9 hours.     
I didn't look, but my last email to you was a year or so ago. Let's see if it goes past 21.


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This is a hard one Jason.
In 2006 I mentioned silver to my wife, it was $11.50.
I bought some for myself, coins, which she does not mind as I am housebound and have to have something to do.
I could not afford gold, we are on a pension.
Then we had a windfall of some $22,000.
I asked her to invest in gold and silver.
I explained the whole situation about fiat money.
But it cut no ice, gold and silver are only metals.
I explain that it is money, take her to your website.
You are a Christian and my wife is a fundamentalist Christian.
But I got nowhere because if something happens Jesus is coming and He will fix it all.
And being greedy is nasty.
I explain that all I am doing is trying to protect what we have and that it says nowhere in the Bible that you are allowed to be irresponsible.
And then I got harder.
I pointed out that half of what we possess is mine and I want my half in gold and silver.
She goes along with it and buys some of her own.
But she is still very wary.
Gold goes from $630.00 to $1200.00 but it means nothing to her.
She can't buy a loaf of bred with it so it is suspicious.
She is very intelligent but in this case she is the housewife who always managed the money and had to struggle so she has a mental block.
She still does not trust it.
And it would be irresponsible of me that it will work out for the better, only God can do that.
I hope this helps.
Regards.

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what i think is astonishing, is that you had to convince your father, rather than your father convince you. i too have tried to convince my parents of the possibilities of a time that has long since gone. i payed my father with a 1 ounce gold eagle coin back in 2003 for a quick loan that he gave me. of course gold was still being shunned at this time. he took it reluctantly. today he still has it. his opinion changed too. gold and silver has slowly been stolen away from us in an insidious manner since the beginning of the Great Republic of  The United States of America. the public has been lied to and convinced of the archaic nature of real money. our parents had access to real money. they had it in the 30s 40s 50s when silver was still contained in coinage. of course the smart and responsible people hoarded these coins. (the same is done in mexico, just as fast as the coins go into circulation, the silver content coins disappear as if by magic) and we see them today on ebay and mercadolibre alike.

i think that the biggest argument against holding silver or gold, is just that. hoarding until the price goes through the roof and the common folk cannot afford to buy these metals. those with the most economic resources available always win. they will hold all the cards and leverage everyone else out. whether gold is $100.00 / oz or $25,000.00 / oz most common folks cannot afford it. all people will spend $5.00 on an 8 oz bottle of so called "purified water" but are reluctant to spend $20.00 on an ounce of silver. we all know it takes much more resources, energy and effort to extract the ounce of silver from the ground, process and mint it. maybe i should sell all my silver and gold, and hoard bottled water. 2012 is around the corner (big sun cycle) gonna burn up everything. how many ounces of silver / gold could i get for 8 ozs of water then? of course people thought the same way for y2k. how foolish is this generation? the wizard of oz (the fed) waves his hand in congress, and all are awed. it sure is easy to get a dollar. "sir, could you spare me a dollar? my car just broke down around the corner--" nothing like easy street. responsibility? whats the definition of that word? is it spanish french or chinese? like your articles.

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That's right Jason-- that's what I felt when I bought my first bar from your Mom! Remember I stated my excitement in our interview.  There's nothing like holding it in your hands. The five senses for marketing are important.  I should ponder that myself.  I'm thinking of promoting the show to my prosepective Guest/Sponsors with video. I think that may help alot.

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Jason -
 
It's been some years since I last wrote you but your current essay compels me to do so again.   I was one of the people to whom you sent a complimentary one ounce silver round in your campaign to put California on a silver standard.   I still have and treasure it.  You are welcome to use all, any portion, or none of the long email that follows, as long as neither my name nor any identifying information is attached.  
 
Chapter One - I was an avid coin collector and student of business / economics even as a child.   I was a teen when the US Mint announced in 1964 that it would be the last year of silver coinage.   I knew immediately that the silver coins would quickly disappear and resolved to accumulate as many as possible.   I had worked during summers and on weekends mowing lawns and selling magazine subscriptions, saving up almost a thousand dollars along the way.   When I began seventh grade that fall I immediately made a "deal" with the woman who sold ice cream during lunch.   I would help her set up her cart before lunch and put it away after lunch in exchange for the opportunity to purchase all of the silver coins in her change tray at the end of lunch.   I did this for the entire school year.   I held my silver coins through high school, college, and graduate school, until 1980, and sold them when the price was too high for me to resist.  I purchased a cheap fixer house at the beach in Southern California with the proceeds.   I have lived in this house for almost thirty years and, although the price has declined from the peak, it's still worth almost one million dollars - free and clear!  
 
Chapter Two - Over the years I had purchased several additional fixer properties and rented them out for cash flow.    I became concerned that sales prices were rising much faster than rents by 2002 and sold these rental properties - all except one - from 2002 to 2005.   I split the proceeds between two forms of cash:  US$ T-bills and equal quantities of gold and silver bullion coins.   I may have missed out on the final frenzy of real estate price "appreciation" in 2006 - 2007, but my metals have more than made up the difference.   I think you could say that gold, and especially silver, have made all the difference in life for me.   
 
I have proselytized for precious metals purchases to friends and associates for years.   My approach has been three-fold - discuss it, hand them basic material to read, and give them a one-ounce silver coin as a gift, to have and to hold.   I have found that a few people "get it" immediately and want to know how and where to make a purchase right now.    I typically take them to a local supplier with whom I have done business for decades, they pay cash and pick up the coins.   I also accompany them to a local "big box" store if requested to purchase a safe, and give them a few tips on securing and hiding a safe at home.   The remainder falls into one of two categories - they either want to "think about it" and eventually choose to act or don't act, or they immediately mount a strong and vigorous argument against precious metals.   This last group is usually the wealthiest and best-educated.   Many of them have MBA degrees (as I do) or PhD's in economics and they are much too smart and sophisticated to do something as stupid as buying "useless" gold or silver.   Not only does it provide NO INCOME, it is too risky and speculative.   I am then identified as a "survivalist" and/or a "crackpot," neither of which I mind.
 
Saddest story of all --One of my good friends (a doctorate in business) sold his house for a substantial profit in 2002 and chose to rent instead of buying another.   I begged him at the time to put at least 25% of the proceeds into gold and silver equally.   He scoffed at me and, instead, "invested" in a series of very high risk and speculative ventures which not only became worthless but also left him owing money.    In October of 2008, as he was cleaning up the financial damage, I again begged him to buy whatever silver he could afford at $9 per ounce - I assured him the price was temporarily way too low.   This time he told me the price had already gone too high, he did not have enough cash to make a big enough investment,  and he was not going to lose more money in another risky speculation.   Besides, buying and securing a safe was just too much trouble!   BTW, he has read your essays for years and really enjoys them.
 
So, Jason, my conclusion is that after planting that initial "seed" there is very little I can (or should) do to make it grow.   It will either take root or not irrespective of my further efforts.   I am at peace with that.  Perhaps I will see you in Phoenix on February 4-5.   Blessings and many thanks to you for your tireless ministry. 


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Jason:
 
You have very good suggestions on how to get others interested. I gave my sister a 1/10 oz gold eagle for her birthday. She really loved it, and had never seen anything like it before.
 
When my wife's brother found out that we were buying silver, I had to listen to a long lecture on "the mistakes beginning investors make", complete with an explanation of how gold and silver are in a bubble because everyone is buying them, how hard it is to sell for a price anywhere near what you paid, and how much money he lost when he sold his gold back in 1998.
 
I told him about my good experiences buying from APMEX, CMI, and both buying and selling on ebay. I also pointed out how prices were much higher than when I started buying. He seemed to settle down a little, but the whole experience was really akward. This was two years ago. Last year he lost $1,000,000 in the stock market. Three to four years ago I redeemed all shares in a mutual stock fund in order to buy gold and silver so I had no exposure to the stock market. I certainly have no regrets, I'm glad I got into precious metals when I did.
 
A while back you suggested carrying around some silver coins to get others reactions. So I just recently started carrying a silver eagle and a Morgan dollar with my pocket change, but so far it hasn't led to any conversations. I love to feel those coins in my pocket, there is something very comforting about it.


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Yo Jason: 

This is such a great post by you.  And, itís a twofer. 

You can take all the responses you get and build them into a chapter in the book. 

More text and extremely valuable for folks as well. 

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Number one problem I encounter: investment brokers tell people investing in precious metals is "highly speculative" akin to gambling.

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Hey Jason..here's a big negative. Many people I talk to are convinced silver is a wise purchase until they talk to a financial planner or stock broker. These people advise not to buy and hold silver or gold. The end result is I don't know anyone who shares my interest of silver let alone owning any. 
 
Looking for interesting topics about silver? Many years ago when I was ski bumming at Vail, I lived in Leadville Colorado. The history and lore of that area is beyond amazing when it comes to silver. Just thought I'd mention it because between that experience in my life and the influence of my father with his love of silver coins is what created a lifelong interest for me.

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Hello Jason,
I don't have a lot of silver and it's pretty tight for me right now but --
I have gotten a few people to buy silver coins, mostly Walking Liberty Silver dollars.
They initially bought about 80-90 coins each. These are people I care about. I first started by showing them my coins and having them play with them. I think you have to do this first. I threw them on my couch and had them hear the beautiful ringing sound as they clunked together or I just told them to hold out their hands, cupped together, and I deposited the contents of a tube of Silver Walking Liberty coins in their palms. Beautiful coin, that one, and very desirable. Sounds silly but it worked.
I then explained about silver and its industrial value and the scarcity of same due to it's use in gadgets, cameras, cell phones , computers, etc., over past 60 years. Every one of these friends has a real good understanding about the devaluation of the US dollar already.
I also explain how the B.I.S. had been controlling the price of silver and camouflaging actual silver value by "pumping up" silver paper stocks, giving silver a false low value currently. I email articles to them if they want more info. I then personally took each of them to the dealer I'd bought from before, introduced them and they bought silver coins. One bought some gold too. All 4 have been back to buy more silver since.
I was so happy I did this. Each person is someone I really care about. There are many more people too, both family and friends, and I'll still try and get them to buy now as I know they won't be able to afford it once it starts it's inevitable climb.
Thanks for being there, Jason, and getting the word out. I've used several of your articles to influence people on the wisdom of acquiring silver coins and bullion.
God Bless,

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I strongly advise you to get real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.


Sincerely,

Jason Hommel