What Naysayers are Saying; 75-112 of 112
(Part 3 of 3)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, December 9th, 2009
Last week, I asked my readers to tell me what it's like when they try to convince their friends and family to buy silver and gold.
What do Your Naysayers Say?
(Why won't your friends and family listen?)
The letters poured in. They are all very good.
The thing that sticks out at me in this last group of letters is the overwhelming love that my readers have for their friends and family, and how little that love is returned by those friends and family based on the things they say in reply, or "retort". They say they don't need gold if so and so has gold, etc. The older people in bonds will look down at the experience of their younger family members trying to convince them of buying gold and silver. Or younger family members will not respect the experience and wisdom of the older "gold bugs" who try to convince the younger generation to start saving. Why is there such contempt for those family members who are trying to help the others so selflessly? What family member has ever tried to charge a fee for helping them out with their investments? I, at least, can be villified as a businessman out for a profit, but with family, it's not so.
In fact, this was one of my strongest arguments when trying to convince my father. He KNEW that every other investment advisor was out for a commission. But not me, his son. He knew that I was only motivated to help him earn, make, or keep more money in his investments, after all, I was the primary beneficiary as an heir to his estate! He knew my motives were pure, ie, profit driven only if he succeeded!
What also sticks out is that many people don't have any money to invest. Of course. I understand. Most people are in debt, or have zero net worth. But most people can buy $20 for anything they can think of. That's the price of one silver oz. coin. But if half the people have nothing, the other half have everything.
Anyway, here are the letters, with my responses in ALL CAPS, where needed.
Hi Jason, when I first started buying silver back in 1974 I was told that I should not tell people about my hoard. I told select people over time and they always looked at me like I was some sort of doomsayer or conspiracy theorist. In the past twenty years or so some people have followed me and started their own hoards while others have looked at me like I am a wise man passing on valuable information.
I still am guarded about who I share this information with but when I do tell people they always act like they wish they could do the same but just can't afford it.
Keep up the good work in your quest to educate the masses, in the mean time I will continue to sit back with the comfort of knowing that I will never be broke as long as I have my hoard.
few can use "non sequitur" in a sentence, let alone spell it right. that's pretty good :-)
check this out: i was at the in-laws for thanksgiving and overheard dave ramsey, for the first time, playing on christian television. i believe i had a series of transient ischemic attacks! i seriously COULD NOT believe what i was hearing.
this guy hates gold with a passion, and is recklessly sharing his curious views with masses of apparent believers.... like sheep led to the slaughter. here are a few things i caught:
1. he attacked gold as a pathetic long-term investment, stating it had only yielded a percent or 2 over the last 150 years or so. HOWEVER, he failed to realize not a single one of us is looking at a 1-200 year horizon. MOREOVER, he failed to realize that, as the only true currency, the demand (and thus value) of precious metal would be artificially impacted by the forced replacement of it by federal reserve notes... leading to spikes of interest as a safe harbor at times such as these. NEVERTHELESS, as people often do when speaking out of ignorance, he didn't realize the real truth buried in his supposedly pejorative claim - which is that gold (and silver) have been stable over time (unlike the dollar, which has steadily decreased in value... as we would expect man's pathetic substitute to falter).
so, he FIRST erected and trashed a straw man. second, he failed to appreciate that, aside from being a currency, at times such as this it can be an investment too. and third, he completely failed to apprehend that he just made a 1-2 century case for the stability of metal across time, while the dollar looks like a black diamond ski slope!!!
his argument is basically repeated here: http://www.daveramsey.com/article/dont-buy-gold-sell-it/lifeandmoney_other/
2. his failure to distinguish the stable value of metal as money from the episodic opportunities it presents as a simultaneous investment in the following: he proceeded to play the old "buy low, sell high" card, and noted that gold is at an all-time high. first, i'm not sure this is true if inflation-adjusted numbers are used - i'm pretty sure it's not. in any event, that statement presupposed that he is somehow privy to the alleged fact that gold will not go higher. but central banks becoming net buyers, followed by a billion chinese and boatload of indians consuming the metals, seems to suggest otherwise. further, he attacked his own "top-picking" ability when he incidentally noted that he had a tech mutual fund post 100+% gains one year (he was trying to show that gold's 1-2% return sucks). he went on to say that he gave those gains back when things tanked. i'm not sure what his overall point in all of this garbled stuff was, but the bottom line is that he didn't get out when he could have. we who understand metal realize that basic supply/demand commands a higher price. yet, and i suspect you will agree, certain artificial forces can take metal prices beyond an inherent supply/demand based value (the intrinsic monetary value) as people segue from faith in fiat currencies and the pendulum swings in fear and retaliation from a life of delusion. speculation, etc. can push the prices higher than may be supportable otherwise... and therein lies the investment opportunity. i certainly plan to sell some at some point, with the expectation i can buy it back cheaper later. this always happens... and i believe will again unless Jesus returns first.
3. he attacked metal as currency/medium of exchange. he claimed that precious metal is inherently worthless (and this guy's a christian?), no better than any other metal or rock. to support this thesis, he pointed to a remarkably small, isolated, catastrophic event that took place before fiat currencies were popularly under attack and people were still largely under the ether (truthfully, they mostly STILL are). anyway, he said that nobody ran around with bags of coins during Katrina, and therefore metal will never been used in times of crisis. what a profoundly feeble extrapolation! the prima facie case for this ignorance demands no further comment from me.
4. meanwhile, he places great faith in the stock market, with an elementary position that "certainly these companies can't be worth only half of what they were a year ago." no apparent respect for P/E ratios, shady bookkeeping, or the simple facts that companies are currently improving their balance sheets by cutting expenses... which is not sustainable long term. moreover, has he not paused to realize that the stock market can "crash UP," as well as down. he better be posting some amazing gains to keep pace with 1.) the toilet-diving dollar and 2.) the forthcoming hyper-inflation. and just wait until all the bankruptcy's catch up with the credit card companies en masse... and that's not to mention the massive student loan defaults that are coming and legions of people graduate with easy-money loans that they can't repay. slay the forests and fire up the printing presses!!!! at the end of the day, he's denominated in a currency that john paul jackson has said will be much like the peso.
although i think the "peso" comment was in the jackson hour-long show i saw on GodTV, and not during the sid roth interview.
5. i could go on, but to round out the discussion, he's also convinced real estate will lead us out of the recession. whatever. if nothing else, has he not paused to consider, and he should based on his apparent age, that a deluge of baby boomers are presently marching straight into nursing homes and other assisted living facilities. as both spouses either die or go live in some institution, there will be more single-family inventory than perhaps ever in history. who the hell is going to buy all these homes? and why? investors won't want them, even and rentals, because we're simply not replacing ourselves at a pace fast enough to populate all the neighborhoods that will be empty in 10-20 years.... UNLESS, of course, we further open the floodgates RE: immigration. and commercial real estate is ALREADY getting pounded like there's no tomorrow. an exception, according to jackson, could be rural land... for those fleeing the city.
he can keep buying homes and pile into the invincible fortune 500... i'll take the gold & silver, thanks.
that's the best i can give you... and it was pretty disturbing coming off christian airwaves.
you may be right on kimbo. but alexander has exploded, like on keith jardine, and imploded, like with james irvin (8 second loss... barely enough time to ride a bull!). for the fun of it, i'll take kimbo... he has much to prove. although this could be a career-ending loss for alexander.
People say: Gold only started paying off in the last 15 years. Stocks have been around much longer. People say: We are just pawns in a losing game of government takes from people. Government wins, citizens lose. People say, there are no jobs yet government officials say there are. People And Government says, get a job everyone should work, people say, there are no real jobs, just more layoffs. People say why go to school and get a degree when no one is hiring, and not even the schools can suggest where to get one. People say what do we do. People with money say, get a job. Gold is just another scam, people say, for soon the government will stop selling and make gold illegal to own.. This is what some, some people say to me when I speak to, just people, with and without jobs. With and without careers.
I have bought junk silver coins over the years and have tried to convince my wife to buy the same.
Her answer is that it is too high now and will likely go down. Also, that it doesn't pay any interest like her CD's (which only pay 2-4%). Any suggestions?
Jay, in response to your request below:
I have to talk to most people via email as I am currently working in Saudi Arabia. I have won over my son on the silver argument and my wife is neutral enough to say, "You buy what you think is best"? Most questions center around, "What will silver buy me at any future price compared to today's price?". I think it is a good question and I did some research in order to at least set the stage for what that answer might look like.
With spot silver hovering just under $20/oz I wondered what would buy at $200 or $1000/oz? Mind you it is speculation but I still think it is worth looking at. My simple research showed that silver/oz. was about 1 USD ($1) until about 1961. That was true going back to 1793. Anyway, the spot price started creeping up until 1974 when it jumps to roughly $4/oz. I also noticed that inflation went from about 1% in '61 to 11% in '74. Of course all through out the years the dollar has been loosing "value" so that accounts for some of the rise. I am old enough to remember the Nixon administration playing with price freezes, but not to much success. Then came the oil crisis and the Hunt brothers attempted manipulation (1980) that sent spot silver way up only to crash shortly after the scam was reported. That still didn't help inflation and/or mortgage rates. 18% was not uncommon.
Back to my point I looked at the value of various things in common life as they were in 1961. I decided to use this year as my "a dollar was a dollar" since 1 USD = 1 troy oz of silver. The average house was about $12,500 back then. My parents moved to St. Louis County around then and that is about what they paid for a new house in a new subdivision. This all seems reasonable to me and maybe anyone of my generation. Ok, housing in 1974 jumps to an average of $34,900. Average income goes up too but the jump in spot silver is "behind" the average jump in housing and wages (inflation and other factors are pushing the cost past what it costs to buy silver and other precious metals). Here is my rough little chart of what i recorded and estimated prices for things would be at $200/oz:
Year Silver/Oz Ave. Housing Ave. Income Fuel/gal
1792 1.293 Build yourself? ??? Bucket of oats, ha
1961 1.033 $12,500 $5,315 $.27
(trying the theory that this what the economy would fall back to if $1
= 1 oz silver)
1974 4.391 $34,900 $13,900 $.55
???? 200.00 $2M $700K $66.6 (my question was can anyone imagine paying these prices or making this much money?)
So the question is, "If you bought silver in 1961 would it buy you more or less in the years I show above and estimate for the future?. Let me put it another way. If silver is $20/oz today what does that get you? I went with a gal. of milk, a loaf of bread, and a few grocery items. So, would those same items cost $200 if silver went to $200/oz? If that is true have you really gained anything. Now, if silver at $200/oz or you cash in 10 one ounce coins (bought in say 2009 at $18/oz) is that going to get you just a bag of groceries or is it going to get you a week or a month of groceries?
This is when silver buying today starts to make sense. If it can buy you "more" with the pre-crisis silver then it will get your though a six month monetary crisis. If it lasts longer then your survival depends on how much you bought and at what price. At some point, I believe like you have pointed out, the price climbs too fast to see any return on your money (or increased value for what you purchased). Taking another look at housing I think this answers the basic silver versus gold argument. That being that gold has to be for "big" purchases. If silver were to hit $200/oz and keep going to say the $1500/oz range then silver is going to take care of any reasonable or average housing issue (pay off your existing mortgage). Gold, even in 1/10th oz. coins will be too high to negotiate with on day to day type things.
There you have it. If I had to guess I would say a "new" monetary policy would put things back to 1961 prices. Shocking but with silver at $1/oz it provided stability for a very long time. Am I headed down the right "argument" path or where are the holes that I should fill or replace with different data? Thanks for your time as I expect you will be swamped on this request.
I started buying silver at 18.18 an ounce back over a year ago, when it started going down I thought of it as a gift, everyone else saw me loosing money, I saw it as a perfect way to lower my average cost per ounce. As it went lower and lower I told family and friends that now was the time to buy, I sent everyone on my email list reasons to buy silver and why silver was a far better investment then gold. In over a year I have only convinced 5 people into buying, and one already sold out, said he would buy back on the next drop but he never got back in, I tried telling him that he was a fool and I was actually buying at the same time he was selling-- I have sent my family so many emails about the countless numbers of reasons to invest in silver that I finally got an email from my grandfather telling me that I should cut back by about 50% , I was sending too many -- my uncle too has complained that silver is all I talk about,, I agree I have pushed it, but they just don’t realize the importance. When silver was at $10 I told my dad to drop the price on his property, just to sell it cheap and that he would make the money back ten fold as long as he got into silver soon,, he said that he had worked too long and too hard to just give his property away,, I tried talking my mother into taking out a home equity loan,, didn’t work.. Im trying to educate people on silver but they are just not open,, my uncle says im too young, I don’t know anything,, that hurts,, but Ill have the last laugh -- Some people say they don’t want to bother with trying to protect they’re money, I say,, isn’t it better to have money to try and protect then no money at all??? People are silly sometimes,, I have sent them links and told them where I buy, I try and make it easy for them -- Right now I am working on opening a Café’ -- The Silver Café’ -- All the art on the walls will be black and white photos of silver in different forms -- I like your thoughts on letting people actually touch the physical metal and I will try and incorporate that into the concept-- I want to educate the general public and think this will be a good way-- They come in for a Latte’ and sit down and start reading a list of all the amazing facts on the current silver market -- if you have any input or advise on this idea or are aware of any beautiful photos of silver bullion please let me know,, thanks
Hello, how are you going? :-) Thanks heaps for your article about people who don't listen when we warn them.
My Dad, who lived through a currency collapse and a war oversaes when he was younger, says to me "if it was so precious, they wouldn;t be selling it, they'd be keeping it for themselves. Why are they selling it and not keeping it for themselves if you say it could save their lives one day? Why are they taking peoples dollars for silver (and gold) if you tell me dollars will be worthles. If dollars will be wothless then why do they want YOUR dollars. If precious metals are so great, then why would they want to exxhange your worthless dollars for their precious metals?"
So then I gotta admit, I get stumped for an answer, and I just go and have a cup of tea
:-) I would love to hear your answer to this. Thanks heaps for everything, I do appreciate it a lot :-) Kind Regards,
Expounding the benefits of PM ownership/possession.
I have long been an avid reader of your SSR and have been "all-in" on PM's since '98.
My efforts to endear friends and rellies to the honesty of real metal have largely fallen on deaf ears ...and the common retort (from family in particular) is that "they" don't need to worry about it ...because I've got all those bases covered.
This, of course misses the point completely, however I can still remember a time in MY life where I could afford such a lassez-faire "devil-may-care" attitude also.
So to conclude, in my experience, there appears to be a more ready acceptance of the allure of PM ownership directly proportional to ones age...
... in that the young'ns ...particularly IF they have a PM endowed Father, can't concieve of the NEED to - have 'n hold.
Thats my take anyway ...also I feel we ALL need be fully aware that the present "market" as it is set-up, MAY still throw a curve-ball at PM's pricing - as the understanding dawns that "most" PM's traded are in fact PAPER ...and essentially in a crisis, will be priced in the market-place accordingly.
In a nut-shell, price ...and value will diverge perhaps for quite some time ...and there MAY be a tendency to a wholesale abandonment of the metals just prior to them REALLY proving their worth.
As someone who enjoys numbers, economics and it's scriptural basis, here are some perspective and observations from the UK and southern Africa:
I get the feeling that we're even more behind the US as far as an understanding of the true role of PM's. At least the US (as well as Australia, Canada and South Africa where I'm from) has a memory of the role of mining in an economy. In Britain it truly is a "barbaric relic".
You can get investment gold quite readily, but because silver attracts VAT at 15-17.5%, there is very little investment silver at anything less than 40% over spot - although I know it's still a bargain. There is no second hand silver left.
There are few naysayers - just a lack of comprehension. They look at me as if I was mad. There is very little debate. This includes jewelers, pawn brokers, bullion dealers, the Jewish community in Hatton Gardens, antique dealers, a numismatist in the British Museum, members of LBMA, someone selling gold to the Sino-sovereign wealth fund, and numismatics specialists. They all adopt one of two strategies: Treating PM's as a finished good to mark up as high as possible, or buying and selling on gold for the cash flow without holding stock. There is no understanding of gold/silver as money. Very few want to hold bullion because they have memories of the 90's and fear a crashing price.
My local jeweller sold his entire stock of 200 sovereigns to my friends and hasn't been able to rebuild his stock since. He often offers KR's and silver to me at spot and was even was selling sovereigns at £145 when the spot value was £172, just for the cash flow. The reality is the general UK public are cashing in on what they perceive as high gold prices. The jewellers are only surviving because of the business in scrap gold, taking about 1kg of 9ct scrap a week. Many bringing in their old jewellery are older people who are just battling to survive. They are well dressed, but desperate for cash. They all think gold is overpriced and ready for a crash. I am the only person I know of who is bullish.
My biggest critics are those within leadership in my church. They see me as too fixated on money, that it's not that important. These are mostly those who I don't have direct relationship with - and thy don't want to discuss it with me. Those I am friendly with are coming to respect my understanding. I've learned to only give bite sized chunks. Any more is too much. Many of my friends have come to invest in gold/silver. I encourage everyone two "just buy a small piece of gold" like a sovereign. "It's like buying a specific car. Once you own one, you notice every other like car on the road. Just like owning a piece of gold, you suddenly start noticing what a good investment gold is". Once they understand gold and it's volatility, I introduce them to silver.
I realise people need a low risk entry. The results then speak to them. Sadly I don't see enough people putting their faith into action after being shown the scriptures. Are they waiting for this to be preached from the pulpit? Most see scriptures on gold and silver as not being literal meaning. I find it easier convincing unsaved people than saved people about the merits of PMs. When asked where I leaned this, I've happy to point to the bible. I came across your newsletter much later which affirms what I'd leaned in my bible.
I asked my Mom and step dad to buy me some gold with some of my money in South Africa. They spoke to a financial advisor and promptly went and opened a fixed deposit account for me. My mom was excited with the 8% return she got until I showed her the 100% gain in gold over the same period. I didn't show her what I made on my junior miners. She's now bought some silver jewellery.
I've also got a few aids. If someone thinks gold/silver is expensive, I show them an 1838 Victorian silver shilling on my key ring. This was a days wage then as was a Roman Denarius during the time of Christ. I've also got a whole wad of Zim dollar notes which works really well when displayed with a sovereign (formally £1). Did you know that the inflation really accelerated when the Zim government tried to buy every US$ note from the black (free) market. Of course my biggest advocates are my friends who've already bought gold and silver.
I'm should be Sacramento in early January. I'd love to look you up.
I have been accumulating silver for 20 years. highest paid - 14.00/oz and lowest 4.50/oz. When high I bought a few 1oz, when low I bought a few 100 and 10oz bars. I began giving away 25 1oz coins to my siblings on their silver wedding anniversary. I told them to never sell unless a real need or doomsday situation arises. My theory against Gold, and the world goes to hell, try buying a tank of gas or loaf of bread or barter any necessity with a gold bar or coin. Much easier to carry, use, and barter silver. Also silver will always be needed for your health, think of purifying filters and silvedene cream using silvers natural bug killing activity.
I wanted to reply to your request because I'm seeing things from a slightly different angle. From my perspective, it's not what people are saying to my cries to educate themselves on precious metals, economy, markets, political sabotage, etc. but rather what people are NOT saying!
I began investing in physical silver about a year and a half ago, when I found out from my business mentor that things were changing and that we should start looking into "God's money". To the members of my business team and I, this was quite out of the ordinary to just drop in in a meeting we were attending. So we started doing our own research into precious metals and economic stability and such. With us fanning our mental resources we discovered your newsletter, along with folks like David Morgan, Michael Maloney, Peter Schiff, , and others. We've read their books, we've trolled through web pages, read many articles & newsletters, watched many videos, and most of all, TOOK ACTION by converting our dollar assets into silver.
So, the point I am trying to make is that we are very well educated and know what we are talking about. We are very credible within our circles of influence, with knowledge backed up by facts, historical data, and field experts, such as yourself.
But here is the irony in all of this. We are consistently trying to educate our friends and family by sending them email links, posting links on our facebook pages, talking to people in person about the real crisis that is about to take place, and teaching by example by buying silver ourselves. We are not "Doom and Gloom" about it nor do we ram the information down their throats. We simply and calmly are letting people know that they should be preparing themselves. So while trying in all these ways to encourage the folks we know, the biggest response I get is...NOTHING! No rebuttals, no arguments, no discussions, no questions, not even any inquiries! It's like I'm just being completely ignored!
The only person who really has done anything with the information I've shared (outside of my business team) is my brother. He has started reading some good books and even has bought some silver himself. But even so, he has the means to do even more if he wanted to.
The overall consensus (at this time frame) that I have seen, is that most Americans have their heads buried in the sand. Just like those 3 monkeys we always see, they have their hands over their eyes, their ears, and their mouths. It's almost as if they don't want to know the truth. They'd rather live in their own self-delusional bubble of reality. But I believe the most difficult part about all of it, of which I'm sure you are quite familiar with, is that it is sad to know that many of the folks we love and care about won't wake up until it is too late for them. They'll still be clinging onto the side of the Titanic for survival while our life boats will have already landed on the safe-haven shores of prosperity.
To be honest, I wish more of my friends would argue with me or tell me that I'm wrong. Then I could simply lay out the facts on my side and ask them for their supporting facts. And just like you placing a shiny new gold or silver coin in their hands to see and feel physical evidence, so will the facts and historical precedent also reveal to those that are open minded that there are no facts to support any alternate outcome.
Now, I will say that there are some people who ARE beginning to waking up to inconsistencies they are seeing, but by and large, only a select few are really doing anything about it.
So, I hope that helps with your information gathering, my friend. From my perspective, the folks I know are simply not responding at all to my attempts to help them. But I will not give up! It's not in my nature. When things really start going downhill, people will be desperately looking for individuals to lead them and tell them what to do. And we will be standing together saying, "follow me."
Thanks for taking the time to write your newsletters and helping us stay informed, Jason. It is because of pioneers like you, that we have been able follow the right path.
Take care, my friend!
Several years ago I quit talking to anybody about my precious metals belief. I learned they never gave me credit when it performed well, but felt free to "let me have it" on any pullback. Just recently a guy I convinced to buy a box of Silver Eagles back at $5.70 was grousing it wasn't "doing much". He has 400% gains and he's still not happy! The Y-2K experience also taught me many people are mostly lazy, but able to remember who DID prepare, in case they needed to take flight and show up on your door step. I no longer want to be perceived as "getting rich", even though they had the same opportunity and never stepped up. Back when I WAS talking about to acquaintances, these were the deal breakers I always heard.
* Recalling somebody that knew somebody that "lost his ass" when silver fell from $50 to $3 in the 1980's.
* Their mutual fund, IRA, 401 precious metal investing., etc. didn't allow
* They always wanted to get in on a pullback, but in reality were being dishonest with themselves, and me. It was a line to blow me off.
* Their "professional" investment advisor told them to never listen to amateurs. (This is really galling to me, the professional advisors have ruined most of them)
* They were far more interested in deploying capital to the bubble du-jeur - tech, housing, whatever.
* Gold and silver owners were just perceived as weird. Proof of the media brainwashing that's occurred the past 30 years.
I'm sure you've heard all of these too. I learned long ago their are people who come into your life asking little or nothing, yet offering profound positive changes. I am eternally grateful to the few who exposed me nearly 14 years ago to precious metals. I am fortunate to have been receptive, rather than dismissive. As I watch many close friends suffer in this unfolding depression I am truly sorry for what's being inflicted upon them. They are basically good people, but until they become receptive to changing their financial lives they are doomed to ruin.
Thanks for your efforts, and best holiday wishes.
For over 30 years I have tried to wake people up to all the subjects you cover in your reports and more.
1. They don't want to hear it.
2. They have too many othe problems to worry about in their personal lives and can't handle anything more. (Which is true as the government keeps piling it on heavier and faster than people can handle the changes. I am not sure if people have been dumbed down so much as just shock traumatized, to where they just tune everything out. Accomplishes the same goal.)
3. From family (all except for one brother, over the years), I am a nutjob. I am not loud or aggressive in my "few" soft spoken comments, but trust me, I can clear a room faster than a 100 pound skunk.
4. I have continued to forward your newsletters to a few people, and gradually a few more are listening, but not enough of them to stand up and fight back against what I think is coming at us like a freight train.
Now, at age 77, there is not much I can do but try to reach the young people in the family and a few I just seem to meet -- I gave up believeing in coincidences a long time ago. It is the young people who seem hungry to understand what is happening around them. This gives me hope. I am careful in what I say, and point them to a little history they can look up on google, a few good web-sites, and books. They come back and almost explode and say "No one has ever told me these things before", and they want to know more. I caution them to question everything they read, see or hear, and to compare as many facts as they can before coming to any conclusions. I have found these young people to be extremely open-minded and so smart it is scary. Given half a chance, they will make this a better world.
DEAR JASON,MY BROTHER RETORTED THAT GOLD WAS A "BARBAROUS RELIC,"A COMMON REPLY FROM THE ANTIGOLD CROWD,WHEN I ASKED HIM IF HE HAD ANY GOLD.BUT I KNEW WHAT KIND OF INFORMATION HE HAD BEEN READING,BUT I COULD NOT CONVINCE HIM THAT IT WAS MONEY CONSTITUTIONALY.THANKS FOR THE ARTICLES THAT YOU WRITE.
A good number of people ( when you are talking about the mass market) can't
buy because their discretionary income is so low.
I would suggest selling very small unit silvers. Let's say $5 and 10$ lots. I
don't know how that increases production costs but remember when people
buy cars the vast majority want to know how much per month, not the total
value of the product.
Most people are reactive, not anticipatory. They live in a fog, day to day.
That's the way it is.
To spark their emotions, you will have to speak to them directly. Hold
small tupperware silver parties where they can examine the silver
eagles, and other national coinage. Than have smaller samples to buy.
This will require a marketing group of people- saleswomen. There
are a lot laid off good workers out there.
Remember, logic moves people like us, but we are already in the game.
Emotion moves the rest.
Hope this helps.
A friend of mine just a few days ago said, "I wouldn't invest in gold or silver because it's too risky. Anything commodity-related is too risky." I asked him if he had any dollar bills in his pocket and explained that those are much more risky than gold or silver. : )
very simple arguement
We own both gold and silver - much more silver than gold. It took me 5 years to convince my husband to invest ... We had to leave our financial adviser because he talked down gold and silver so much which in turn cemented my husband's position (claims it is to volatile). But March 2009 I just went to a local dealer and bought some gold and silver. I wished I had done this 5 years ago - we would have made a nice profit.
But here is the argument:
You don't make 'any money' buy having the gold and silver sit in a safe deposit etc. - so really you are notuntil you sell it...then you have to 'pay' a sell commission etc. There is not compounding on interest, no way to write a check on it, or swipe a debt card backed by it. It is not working $$$$ so say and yes it is volatile.
BTW - I buy from Mom's Silver. Love it. I'm buying for those on my list silver this year!
Warmest Holiday Wishes,
Thought For The Day:
To call an Illegal Worker an " ' is like calling a Drug Dealer an "Undocumented "
I have plenty nay-sayers in my family who believe the U.S. gov. will make everything OK, happy days will be here again with ticker tape parades. I lean toward the silver side of P.M.'s and everytime I ask them to consider buying some silver with their paper, they always bring up 1980 and ask if silver is such a great investment or protection, why has it not kept up with gold? 1980 $850-ish /oz. silver $54 per oz. Gold now sits above $1100 bucks and silver can't break $20 bucks. I've fwd. your news letters to them and the only one who responded to it was my brother- in law who said; You listen to a man who sells silver? Of course he will tell of fairy tale manipulations, he wants to sell his silver. He even has his mother involved..... I am tired of telling them. The problem I have is I believe SOME DAY, silver will out price gold per oz. and if it's next week or 15 years from now, I worry that they will be stuck with alot of useless paper. I have enough silver in all forms,a couple bags of junk, and enough 1/2 oz, 1 oz. rounds. & 10-50 oz. bars. Enough for my wife and I to hopefully live OK but I worry for them. If, or when the day comes that the dollar is history, I would feel obliged to help them out any way I can but it irritates me that they don't bother to take the initiative and place some paper in silver or gold. Again I really think silver will surprise alot of people...... Anyway take care,
God bless and forgive us all
A few years ago, you week after week said we should buy a certain silver mine stock, I bought it, and two weeks later it went down, I waited about 3 weeks and we never heard from you, So I sent you an e-mail stating why do you week after week when a stock is going up you send us your e-mail saying buy, but when it went down we heard nothing from you in regards to advice, You sent me an e-mail saying,
WHAT DO I HAVE TO DO COME OUT THERE AND HOLD YOUR HAND.
Now you come to us, and say, tell me what people do when you tell them The Gospel about gold and silver, In my ten years buying gold and silver I have told all my Friends and relatives, only one has actually bought, I had nagged him for 5 years to buy. about a month ago he called me and asked if I would take him to the place that I purchase at and hold his hand so he to can say he owns gold and silver, Yes people need someone to help them make that big step, most if not all have never been in a coin store, a new world where they talk of old coins with different values based on a # of reasons why the price is so high, How can the common person talk the talk, they are scared to death to enter this new world feeling very stupid, when it seems all their smart Friends know how to buy. So you see (YES) you need to hold their hand all the way into the store.
Next time I will give my ideas of getting them there.
Thanks for all your advice.
They just don't understand what your saying. I'm convinced your best bet would be to sit down with them and show them what convinced you in numbers. I saw M3 in 2000 and knew that this had never been done and it would escalate because that is the only way to keep the party going. I didn't know why they did it but I knew the scale at which they did it had never been done! Few believed me ( they don't understand either) one is interested because he sees I've been right and keeps asking questions. He's scared that's all and he told me his wife told him to buy when I told him to in 2003 - present but he didn't and now he's reluctant because the price has ran up. The ones who do believe me bought stocks not gold/silver itself. I've steered them towards the etf's SIVR, IAU and the trusts GTU, CEF and finally Gold mining etf's and funds, large miners and royalty companies SLW, RGLD, GDX, PMPIX, GGN, GOLD, AEM, GG, KGC,AUY. I urge them to go to Gold money and put gold and silver in a fireproof safe at home or another safe place but I don't think any of them did that and I urged them to do that first. They did like Everbanks Gold CD and a few of them took that. Last but not least I've been talking to some who just say ( I aint got no money) and of course I drop that conversation.
I had very little difficutly in talking my mom into buying silver. What doesn't make sense is that we argue about every single one of the things that I give as reasons for buying it. So at this point, who the heck knows why she's buying it. LOL
hi jason. i read your reports all the time.
i golf with a broker and he has no interest in gold or silver. his comments are that "if you invested in gold in 1980 it hasn't gone up much in 30 years." he doesn't think it will go up more. thinks it's a joke. i was going to mention to him that if you invested in the TSX ten years ago, you would be even today too ( i'm in Canada ). he doesn't seem to worry about US dollar printing. he thinks it's nothing compared to the size of the US economy. debt isn't necessarily a bad thing, he said. as a percentage of GDP
another broker i know said that when, not if, the US starts raising interest rates, the US dollar will strengthen and gold/silver will fall. and just look at what happened in Dubai. that short and sweet "crisis" caused a run the to "safe haven" of the US dollar. when the economy falls again ( i assume it will ), another flight to "safety" of the US dollar will happen again.
both of my broker friends don't advise their clients buy gold. neither of them even mention silver! and these aren't beginner brokers, these guys are managers with long service. i'm only in my 30's and the young brokers i know say they are told to stay away from gold and silver.
all of these brokers laugh if i even bring up the subject of some kind of gold-backed world currency, or even a basket of currencies with gold included. i didn't think that was such a stupid comment.
sorry for the long email. i'm sure you are busy. thanks for your time
God bless you and your yours,
It is funny that you should ask for help. Back in early October I wrote down what I went through at work, I sent it off to Ed Steer hopping he may read and understand my thought/conclusion as he seemed to be in touch with those who believe in a future confiscation. I saved it on my phone here and will send the story on to you.
---written on monday 5oct09 @ 1300---
I just had a conversation with a couple guys at work that made me think of ALL of the commentary I have read in the last couple of years. It kind of put everything into perspective for me, it also triggered a thought that may prove out to be an extension of the gold and silver confiscation.
I am young in a high paying job with many fellow employees about to retire. My point of view about g/s is kind of public here, enough so that I was sought out for advice. A 55 year old about to retire asked me where he could sell his Krug's. I said "me!" of course. A 60+ year old man not quite ready to retire sitting in ear shot asked why I would buy at 1000+, said gold was at the top, and said its price goes up and down so much. I told him I would rather (and do) buy silver. Then the 60+ year old said there was so much less money to be made in silver. I kindly told him my % gains for the year. This is when the 55 year old said "well I actually have some silver bars I need to get rid of too".
I paused and asked when he bought his gold and silver, he said in the 70's, four of them at about $400 each. So I laid it out for him, (and the 60 year old) this way.
"If you would have put 1600 dollars in an envelope 30+ years ago to save for retirement, how much would you have now?"
" Well, $1600"
" Nope, what could you buy for $1600 30 years ago, that you can buy now for the same $1600?"
" Good point"
" Good for you though that you bought 4 oz gold. Now you have over $4000, if you cash it in. "
" That's if I can get that much. They always take a percentage".
"Wow, times have changed. They may actually pay you a premium now."
After asking why or if he needed to sell his insurance he mearly stated that he found out that the price is over a thousand and "it sounded right", now he is just trying to find a place to sell it. I told him to keep it and remember why he bought it in the first place ( mid 70's, inflation) I told him in my opinion that we are in the early 70's right now, any time he reconsidered selling to talk to me and prove that he needed to sell (as that is not his savings for retirement, but savings for whatever), I'll prove otherwise, or buy it from him.
It was not until lunch time that my brain clicked, the longer the underground force keeps the gold at $1,000 and just above, the more physical gold and silver comes out of the true longs. Think about it. It does not matter if they make the price go up or down in the next 6months. We (and they) all know what is to happen to the FRN and the limited supply of a tangible asset's priced in those FRN's.
Anyone that is in a position to retire (i.e. Baby boomers) in the next year has, themselves, experienced the 1970's gold boom. I would assume there are many more than my friend with a few, or more, ounces left over from then who held out just a bit too long, kept them as a token, now see an opportunity to cash in and save a little face turning a profit(time line excluded of course).
The lack of investment education is scary. The fate or the FRN is scary. The retirement options available is scary. The fact that people who bought true financial insurance for the right reason at the right time then, want to sell NOW, because "it sounds right" is even more scary.
Now that I have written this down it seems even more plausible than an hour ago that this is a working effort to get the remaining weak and needy holders of the last real asset to dump physical into the market. It would not surprise me if the agents of Russia and China are not networked into every US coin shop, buying every 30 year old round and bar coming in as the markets are kept depressed/inflated (sounds like the deflation/inflation argument to me). That may be a stretch, or not, but its off the point.
To the people that you and yours have influence on, I wish you to share this thought. Our seniors are getting their gold and silver stolen from them at a great price, and at a great cost. Let's help educate them to "hold the line". They were in position years ahead of the curve for the right reason. Let's reinforce them and keep them there. We know what there FRN savings is going to be worth to them. We know what there 201K...sorry 401K will be worth to them. We know what Socialist Security will provide for them. And most of all we know what their gold and silver will provide for them.
So it has been two quite memorable months now and even more confirmation to this idea. I only can not confirm who is selling their gold to the coin shops (maybe YOU know someone who does!?!) After todays FRN technical breakout I am personally a buyer as I am sure that your company and those like yours will be for the next week or so during this buyers correction. All of our elders and their uneducated children will see this as a perfect selling opportunity and will do so. Any buyer who is forced to scrap and send what they are buying from them to refineries to keep their business afloat will only be helping the disappearance of our (public) gold and silver. Also at fault is the "crap for gold" companies just turning a profit but your aware of that.
Back on track now...
Yes, people tell me to stop talking and even chuckle when I bring it up.
I have given silver as a gift with a short explanation. Nothing further
A friend who received a buyout from jeep asked me what to invest the dollars in, I gave him a couple fire dept. stamped ounces and printed a couple silverseek articles ( yours included), he is yet to ask any further questions.
I talked to an acquaintance at a high school reunion, he told me he was a stock broker and now is a fund manager. I told him that I am a bit of a contrarian investor myself. He told me that he was too so I asked him if he traded silver and gold. He said all the time, it had been very good for him in his short career. I asked him where he stored it and who he gets it from, thinking I just hit pay dirt and would not have to pay a premium on the metal again. ETF's was his answer and my disappointment. I pulled my trusted three ounces out of my pocket and let him hold them. At the end of our conversation he told me that that was the first time he ever held a precious metal in his hand!
I hope that I did not bore you and my thought from a different perspective will intrigue you.
All the best and God bless.
Jason, nobody naysays me on precious metal stocks. I've passed out many copies of Alan Greenspan's famous "Gold and Economic Freedom" essay, and to date nobody has disagreed. That essay handily makes the case for heavy metal, and also destroys not only fiat money, but also fiat-money stimulus packages, and fiat money bailouts.
Several coworkers, including most especially the head of accounting, are VERY impressed with my decision to roll my 401k money into the safe(r), audited metal holders such as CEF, GTO, and SGOL. (I won't touch the American stocks such as GLD or SLV.) It helps that my bosses are the children of Holocaust survivors and several other coworkers are survivors of various other nasty regimes (including one who sneaked through the Cambodian killing fields to safety as a little girl). However, even native born Americans are getting a clue that the regime of fiat is doomed and that society could come apart at the seams all too easily.
As to possession of physical bullion, I have no naysayers because I DON'T TALK ABOUT THAT. In the event that I have free cash, I plan on upping my ammo stocks first (following the logic of Kurt Saxon). THEN I'll get silver and gold for personal possession. But I still won't talk about it. Better for them to think I have guns, and no gold, if things get really bad.
random thought.... do you pay your in heavy metals, or fiat? Islamic law forbids paying zakat in fiat (hence the move to silver dirham and gold dinar in the islamic world) but Christendom, always late out of the gate on such things (Luke 16:8), has been strangely silent. I wonder what my church would do if they found a krugerrand in the offering basket?
Everyone in my family thought I was out of my mind wene I started into gold and silver bullion in 1998 getting ready for Y2K.And after no big melt down the few that did get coins were upset with me. So I paid them for there coins they now would never need,even there shipping costs.Now in 2009 they all want to buy them back at what they sold them to me for.(Sorry! no ones home) The food I had put in storage came in real handy as I was laidoff a few months later.We ate good for four months tell I found another job. I won't even go into how well I did with the 20,000 rounds of ammo in air tight ammo cans.You know the cal. no one can find and the price thats 5X or more if you can even find it. I'm still getting ready Gold Eagles,Silver Eagles,Junk silver(pre1965) 5.56X45,-7.62X39-45ACP.-12Ga,-lots of Mt. House freeze dry food. Hang on folks for hell of a bumby ride.
I am 77 years of age and long retired from the Investment business (trading )
and in the summer play golf three times a week with a bunch of oldies that call ourselves the Geritol Group. We select numbers to form our foursomes, so, sometimes one is left standing at the number 1 tee waiting your turn to play. For the past six or seven years (when gold was around $300.00) I would stand there and say to all and sundry "Buy Gold, or, in particular, gold stocks" I have done it so often over the years that I have been laughed at as being the eternal gold bug. Well, a couple of good friends who I know are not suffering financially have often said to me that they love receiving their dividends, and gold doesn't pay, although some stocks do. I have always said that there are times when it is better to have a substantial capital gain than all the dividends in the world, but they won't change their views. After last year's fall in the stock market, I carefully pointed out that the only index that has consistently improved in each of the last number of years has !
been the gold index.
More recently I have extolled them to get into gold, as it is still not too late, but they just scoff at the idea. Now I have been asking them what they will do when we get the next severe decline in the TSX and Dow indices. They say it is not going to happen. I have tried talking about the US trillion dollar spending, now aggravated even further by the added spending that will be required to send the additional troops to the already lost cause in , but the don't want to listen.
So be it.
Will be interesting to see what they have to say next April when our golf season opens again.
My efforts to convince people to buy physical gold and silver are just like others. My own brother -in-law, and sister think that I am totally and completely insane. This is despite the fact that I was telling them to buy silver since it was betweeen 4 and 5 dollars an ounce. I even met them at a diner one day and handed him a silver round to keep. I said "this is worth $4.66 cents today, and it will be worth over $100 if you keep it". They both laughed at me and called me a dreamer. Eventhough it's worth $20, they still really think I am insane. Their final response, in general was, Marty, please don't ask me to buy silver or gold again. I NEVER will, but I just want you to know that we hope you will do great with it and make a fortune, we really do. ( my sister and brother in law are very successful and very wealthy people, if that means anything about the way they feel )
My best friend asked me about investments 7-8 years ago. He ended up buying 5000 shares of PAAS for $6.00, and 5000 shares of SSRI for $4.75. He still owns them eventhough they were much higher at one time. Despite his success, he has steadfastly refused to buy physical. When he came to my house, I showed him a bag of physical quarters, a 100 ounce bar, a few coins, etc. He refuses to buy them. I asked him again recently, and he told me, there is no way I will ever buy actual physical silver and gold. I would never know how to sell it, and I would feel uncomfortable keeping it in my house, or anywhere else. He said, don't waste your time trying to convince me, I will never buy it.
The general response from people is none. They just look at me like I am crazy. I where this hat that says "Got Silver?". People look at me like "what is wrong with him?". I was in an airport and 2 ladies saw the hat. I ended up sitting right near them, and I heard one woman say to the other about my hat, What does that mean? The other answered, "I have no idea."
Thanks for the offer. I have been pleading with my girl friend who I copied to buy gold and silver for years. She bought silver when it was much lower with a third of her cash savings. She hasn't purchased since because she believes that she needs a large enough savings in the bank to purchase a home outright if needed. I have told her that her dollars will steadily go down and her silver will go up. I remember you stating you purchased your home with silver. She looks at silver as an investment rather than a preferable alternative to long term bank savings. I also know 3 dealers who will purchase her silver at anytime locally. Maybe a quick response to her regarding how easy it is to trade your silver for dollars if needed and how holding dollars through retirement is a failed plan. By the way, I let her hold gold and silver whenever I buy even the 100 0z bars I bought from you. I am totally sold and buy the metals whenever my cash exceeds my next two months demand. I admit I am a preacher and probably bug her and scare her too much. I don't bug others who I know don't have the money, but she does and I love her so much I don't want her to lose it all.
Why don't thy listen?
Just came back from a ; wife's family told her they
ignore my silver/gold investment pleas because I have never been
successful in life: own no home, jobs that involve travel, etc. But
if her UNCLE who deals in coins advised it, they would buy!
They ignore me regardless of the proof, the justification, or any
argurments; I have even put multiple in their hands over
the last year!
I do think most people will respond to holding GOLD coins though, so
thanks for the encouragement.
I have sent your emails, extracted portions of your emails, and sent
your links. My family maillist is about 18 families or friends.
I look forward to your next message about what you learned from these
responses. I'm glad I met you at Rocklin coin shop, when I drove my
Panther truck there. You are a good man, Jason. Thanks for your
efforts: I own over 200 oz silver now, and gold and palladium too.
Bought another 24 oz yesterday!
Hi Jason hope the Lord is keeping you strong in the faith and in health.
In response to your letter.
A lot of people would like to buy metals but because they of been laid off or are to far in debt they can't afford to, so they say. Also a lot of people know nothing about the gold and silver market and how to buy it. I do know that where I live you would have to traval 300 miles to buy gold and silver at a shop and call in advance if you want 100 oz or more.
Hope this helps
Jason, I am actually having alot of success convincing people to buy Silver. 4 of my friends have bought 10,000oz of Silver this year alone. My opening is how much money did you lose this week? I hear the diversification bull-shit argument. I tell them that silver has the ultimate flexibility, they can be turned into bullets..
You can makeout of it and cure all your ailments. It is a great doorstop. I took a U.S. Silver eagle out to the bar on Friday and was just playing with it. It is a great pickup tool with women. You can let them fondle it. I am going to keep a silver coin in my pocket whenever I leave the house.
I tell people shit like there are a billion Chinese and only 400 millionavailable for purchase. I say the chinese may buy 80 billion in gold with there 2 trillion or whatever the number is of U.S. notes. Howard Hunt drove the price up to $50oz in 1980 with a measly 25,000 contracts. Humor and sarcasm can work quite well. I also say Silver is money it is not an investment. The rise of gold is a sign of the dollar becoming the new kleenex or charmin.
I suspect I will have another dozen or so people buying Silver within 60 days. My goal is to have my friends buy over 100,000 oz by the end of next year.
No doubt you know what Bloomberg just said in
The Sydney Morning Herald.. 07.12.2009
but I just thought to send you a copy as it contradicts
and they should print your reply
so that Bloomberg is exposed --
They are factually wrong?
Yet its hard for the average joe to tell right?
Jason what is your IQ ?
and in what area?
you write so well
you are so logical
You are easy to understand
Look forward to your general reply
to tell us all
That Bloomberg is doing some tricky talking -- correct?
Gold a 'useless asset to own' -- Bloomberg
December 7, 2009 - 12:10PM
Gold’s best year in three decades has yet to match the returns of an interest-bearing checking account for anyone who bought the most malleable of metals coveted for at least 5000 years during the last peak in January 1980. JASON REPLIES: HA, FOR GOLD TO "OUTPERFORM" FROM THE PEAK IN 1980 WOULD MEAN THAT GOLD HAS OUTPERFORMED EVERYTHING SINCE 1971, 39 YEARS AGO! SINCE GOLD HAS NOT OUTPERFORMED, THAT MEANS IT'S STILL CHEAP, AND NOT YET AT ALL TIME INFLATION ADJUSTED HIGHS.
Investors who paid $US850 an ounce back then earned 44 per cent as gold
reached a record $US1226.56 on December 3 in London. The Standard &
Poor’s 500 stock index produced a 22-fold return with dividends
reinvested, Treasuries rose 11-fold and cash in the average US checking
account rose at least 92 per cent. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold
investors are still 79 per cent away from getting their money back.
JASON REPLIES: NOT ALL GOLD INVESTORS BOUGHT AT THE PEAK IN
1980. MANY BOUGHT IN 1971 WHEN THEY REALIZED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS
PRINTING WAY TOO MUCH MONEY TO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO BACK THE DOLLAR WITH
GOLD. THAT'S WHAT SMART GOLD INVESTORS TODAY ARE REALIZING. IF
YOU COUNT RETURNS FROM $35/OZ. IN 1971, GOLD INVESTORS HAVE GOTTEN A 35
FOLD RETURN ($1226 / $35 = 35), WHICH IS MORE THAN ALL OTHER
CATEGORIES. AND GOLD PRICES ARE STILL MANIPULATED LOW TODAY, LIKE
THEY WERE IN 1971!
While gold’s nine-year bull market is attracting hedge-fund managers John Paulson, Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, strategists and fund managers at Barclays, HSBC, SCM Advisors and Brinker Capital say buy-and-hold investors shouldn’t always own bullion. The accumulation of gold is part of a record $US60 billion Barclays estimates will flow into commodities this year.
The SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has amassed more metal than Switzerland’s central bank, spurred by a plunging dollar and concern that the at least $US12 trillion of government spending to lift economies out of the worst global recession since World War II will spur inflation.
The US Mint suspended production last month of most American Eagle coins made from precious metals because of depleted inventories. The UK’s Royal Mint more than quadrupled production of gold coins in the third quarter. Harrods, the London department store, began selling gold bars and coins for the first time in October.
Those sales contributed to a 32 per cent rally in gold this year, JASON REPLIES: AH YES, THE 1 MILLION OZ. MINTED BY THE US MINT IS DRIVING THE GOLD PRICE WHEN THE WORLD PRODUCES 70 MILLION OZ. ANNUAL GOLD? THAT WOULD BE THE FLEA DRIVING THE DOG! the most since 1979, beating the 25 per cent gain in the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, and a 2.4 per cent drop in Treasuries. Investors bought gold as the US economy, the world’s biggest, shrank 3.8 per cent in the 12 months ended in June, the worst performance in seven decades. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.8 per cent annual rate in the third quarter.
A weakening dollar also contributed to bullion’s longest winning streak since at least 1948. The US Dollar Index, a measure against six counterparts, dropped in six of the last eight years, including a 6.6 per cent decline in 2009, bolstering demand for a hedge. JASON REPLIES: YES, BUT THE DOLLAR DID NOTHING AS GOLD RALLIED FROM $438 TO OVER $700/OZ. THE GOLD STORY IS ABOUT A SHORTAGE OF GOLD, NOT ONLY EXCESSIVE DOLLARS GOING DOWN IN VALUE. GOLD HAS BEEN GOING UP IN ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES SINCE 2001.
Buy-and-hold investors may not have done so well. One dollar put into a US checking account in 1983 would be worth at least $US1.92 today, based on annual average interest rates from Bankrate.com. The Federal Reserve target rate from 1980 to 1982 was 8.5 per cent to 20 per cent. Banks were paying 5 per cent on the accounts in January 1981, according to a report in the New York Times.
The S&P 500 returned 2182 per cent from the beginning of 1980
through the end of the third quarter this year, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg. The calculation assumes dividends reinvested on a gross
basis. Treasuries returned 1089 percent through the beginning of this
month, according to Merrill Lynch’s Treasury Master Index.
“Gold is a useless asset to hold long term,” (JASON REPLIES: USELESS UNLESS YOU WANT TO PROTECT YOUR WEALTH, AND GET SOLID RETURNS LIKE 387% SINCE 2001) said Charles Morris, who manages more than $US2 billion at HSBC Global Asset Management’s Absolute Return fund in London. “I’m not a gold bug who believes that you want to own this thing in your portfolio at all times. We should own it when the going is good, and the going right now is great.”
Those who bought gold when it reached a two-decade low of $US251.95 in August 1999 have seen a 387 per cent return, more than four times the 82 per cent gain in Treasuries. An investment in the S&P 500 lost 0.4 per cent through the end of last month. Interest on checking accounts shrank to 0.14 per cent this year from 0.89 per cent in 1999.
Since the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007, investors in the index lost 25 per cent, holders of Treasuries made 16 per cent and gold buyers are up 64 per cent.
“There are people that just stayed in very conservative investments in cash and government bonds,” said Larry Hatheway, global head of asset allocation at UBS in London, who recommends investors hold about 1 per cent of their assets in bullion. “Surely they would have been a lot better off being in gold.”
Buying bullion at $US35 when US President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971 would have given a 35-fold return, about the same performance as the S&P 500.
Gold will average $US1070 next year, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of 19 analysts. The metal may jump to $US2000 in the next five years, said HSBC’s Morris. Ian Henderson, manager of $US5 billion at JPMorgan Chase, said he’s adding to his gold-related holdings because of “the momentum behind it.” Jim Rogers, the investor who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, has said bullion will surge to at least $US2000 over the next decade.
“Our sense is that this bubble is more at the beginning stages than on the brink of collapse,” said Thomas Wilson, head of the institutional and private client group at Brinker Capital.
Those I know say:
1) I really don’t know much about silver and gold. I hear the commercials on the radio and have noticed that there are a lot more than there were a year ago, so I guess that something’s going on – but I really do not have the time to check it out.
2) Recently, from a very well educated and successful Pittsburgh lawyer – “Yes, I do recall that you suggested I buy some silver late last year (at around $9.50/oz.) and no, I did not buy any. I’ve been really busy”.
3) From people who do buy rounds and Peace Dollars; when asked why they do not buy more quantities – “We really do not want to gamble with our Savings, College Fund, IRA’s, etc.”.
Seems the constant theme is Fear, often disguised as ‘I’m just too busy’.
Jason, as you know I’ve communicated with you on several occasions on this and other issues.
The Fear factor is in their face. That’s why I sent you the Cloward-Piven essay. Simply stated, people seem to be to preoccupied with their present, fear filled realities. Working hard to put as much in bank as they can before the economy gets worse.
Sadly, at some point they will realize that the results of their hard work are a collection of worthless paper.
Hello, and thank you so very much for answering my question, I do appreciate it very much! :-) I totally get it now, it does make perfect sense what you said. Thanks heaps once again, I really appreciate it :-) Kind Regards, from Christina :-)
> Date: Sun, 6 Dec 2009 12:23:39 -0800
> From: email@example.com
> Subject: Re: Re- what my family say about silver
> Your dad is partly right. His rationale applies to 98% of all gold in existence. Since that is already owned, it's NOT for sale. The ONLY gold for sale comes from two sources:
> 1. Newly mined gold. Gold miners have expenses; it's not cheap to get out of the ground. Some miners are barely breaking even, or even losing money due to bad administrative decisions, so they MUST sell the gold they produce, since they don't have the money to keep it, they must raise the cash to pay for electricity, debt, wages, capital costs, new exploration costs, etc.
> 2. Central bank selling. sell gold to try to prop up their paper currencies; they dump gold to manipulate the gold price downwards. That is an unsustainable supply source, and when it ends, or as it is ending, gold prices are rising.
> I can sell gold, because I re-purchase in bulk from middlemen who get it from the refineries, directly from the mines, or we buy it from guys who get it from the mint and who don't sell to the public directly. Most all of that is either newly mined gold, or central bank gold.
> We get a bit of gold and silver from the public selling it, but that's only about 1/5th of our supply. Public selling is also an unsustainable supply source, since they tend to hold more as inflation gets worse.
> I hope that helps.
> > Subject: Re- what my family say about silver
> > To:
> > Date: Friday, December 4, 2009, 8:18 AM
> > Hello, how are you going? :-) Thanks heaps for your article
> > about people who don't listen when we warn them.
> > My Dad, who lived through a currency collapse
> > and a war oversaes when he was younger, says to me "if
> > it was so precious, they wouldn;t be selling it, they'd
> > be keeping it for themselves. Why are they selling it and
> > not keeping it for themselves if you say it could save
> > their lives one day? Why are they taking peoples
> > dollars for silver (and gold) if you tell me
> > dollars will be worthles. If dollars will be wothless then
> > why do they want YOUR dollars. If are so
> > great, then why would they want to exxhange your worthless
> > dollars for their precious metals?"
> > So then I gotta admit, I get stumped for an
> > answer, and I just go and have a cup of tea
> > :-) I would love to hear your answer to this. Thanks
> > heaps for everything, I do appreciate it a lot :-) Kind
Generally most people are still satisfied with the dollar but as you start to question why they have this unfounded faith in the dollar
What you discover is fear, fear that the dollar is going away and they have not made plans to protect there families from destruction
As we are commanded by GOD to do. Some statements one might hear are as simple as how do you know it’s real (silver that is) or
How will you sell it if you wanted to these at first appear to be simple and rational questions but when you understand that they
Are really based in fear then they become questions not of inquiry but of doubt
Hello, I am a big fan of your writings and the info that you share -- I take the time to read your full articles because I already have a strong interest in the silver market, but I have a lot of friends and family that are not interested, (not yet at least) -- what I think would be perfect in order to gain the interest from none interested people would be to put all the interesting and important information about silver into an easy to read very short concise Paragraph, or list -- Is there any way that you could put one together from all your research over the years -- not all the info but just what you find to be the most important and most interesting -- I would love to be able to share something like that with friends, and I believe they would take the time to read it and become interested in silver -- .. thanks
I strongly advise you to get real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can