Silver Bull Market 10 Year Review
(Ten Years now, really!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, February 17th, 2013
Silver to Gold Ratio Today: 54:1
Conclusion: You can make 5 to 10 times more money if you buy physical silver, rather than gold, as silver's gains outpace the returns of gold in the future.
Why will Silver's gains continue to outpace gold?
1. Silver has been consumed by the electronics industry ever since WWII, consuming on average 7 tenths of an ounce of silver per person, in the industrialized world for the past 68 years.
2. Silver has been demonetized, meaning, not used as a circulating currency, anywhere in the world for about the past 49 years. This lower demand has allowed for the possibility of the over consumption of silver in point number one, without driving the price through the roof. To further decrease investment demand for silver, the world's experts estimate that over 99% of investment demand for silver has been diverted away from physical silver into alternative paper silver investments such as ETF shares, allocated and unallocated accounts, futures, options, certificates, & storage programs. In summary, if any LBMA member bank or broker and even many non LBMA brokers, has any of your money "in physical silver" it is likely not silver, but fraud. In the world of silver, if you did not lift it, if you did not touch it, if you've never seen it, then 99% of the time, you don't own it, then you can be 99% sure that your money was never spent on silver and that your money has been diverted away from silver.
3. Monetary demand for silver and gold is returning, primarily as a store of value and as a form of savings and investment, because all the governments of the world continue to print up far too much paper money to pay for government spending that is counterproductive and hurts the economy. The lack of political will to reign in spending will continue to propel the gains in silver for at least the next decade.
The real physical silver market remains tiny. Only about $3 billion per year is flowing into physical silver for investment, about 100 million oz. at $30/oz. This is bound to vastly increase as government spending continues, as the US government spends about $1500 billion more per year than they collect in taxes, which means they have to print that money, which devalues the rest of the dollars, which causes the prices of all things to go up, and especially causes rare things with lasting value, like silver, to go up even more.
In the spring of 2003, gold prices had moved decisively above the $330/oz. level, up to even $350 to $360, up from hitting a double bottom of about $250/oz. in 1999 and 2001. Silver was lagging, and hit a new low at $4.15/oz.
In the spring of 2003, it was time for silver prices to catch up to the move up in gold prices. Silver prices did catch up, and surpass gold prices, by way of percentage gains. The price ratio went from about 80:1, down to about 50 to 1 today.
Back in 2003, the consensus among most investors regarding silver was that if silver presented such a great deal, then silver mining stocks would outperform silver. That was correct until about 2006, when the entire mining and exploration sector got overheated. By 2008, the silver price crashed from $20/oz. to $9/oz., in a price manipulation orchestrated by JP Morgan who took over Bear Stearns who had a large short position in silver. This price decline really helped to take down the prices among mining stocks, as investors began to flee the sector, fearing even brokerage collapse failure as among the risks to consider when buying mining stocks. Among other risks are naked short selling of mining shares, and in general, a lack of trust in regulators and brokers throughout the entire system.
The mining industry has yet to recover, and many analysts continue to wonder why so many smaller cap mining shares and exploration stocks continue to lag the prices of silver and gold which have done very well over the last decade.
Regardless of the opportunities in the mining and exploration stocks, it is my opinion that silver and gold will continue to do very well for investors in the USA over the next decade due to political spending. But the rest of the world's currencies have the same problem, and in most cases, remain in worse condition politically.
Silver and gold have been in substantial bull markets for the past ten years in all currencies, going up from 200% to 400%, and will likely continue this trend for the next decade.
Hommel's current short term price predictions:
Silver should continue to do better than the last ten year average of about 22% per year, on average, from $4.15 to $30 over ten years. Expect 30% per year, on average. Expect silver to do worse right after it has gained more than 30% in the prior year, and expect silver to do better after a year when it has done worse.
Silver prices have stagnated, consolidated for the past two years from the prior peak of just under $50/oz.
I expect silver prices near $45 to $50 before the end of 2013. $50 will likely be an epic price battle that may last 6 months to a year.
Silver should hit $75 to $125 in the next peak or run up, likely sometime before the end of 2014.
JH MINT & Coin Shop
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